Why is the Western influence waning?

In recent years the influence of the US and the West has been declining, with fewer countries supporting them in the UN and other international organizations. This hostility or indifference is sometimes attributed to the growth of autocracies, but this is too convenient an explanation. The inconsistency and hypocrisy of the Western countries play a more important role; they emphasize the importance of a norm-based international order, but disregard the rules or interpret them selectively. 

In the collective Western imagination, Russia's attack on Ukraine is a threat to world order. For many countries in the Third World or Global South, it is an internal European conflict without a major impact on their vital interests. They are as indifferent to the plight of the Ukrainians as the West is to the suffering of Africans or Asians. Conflicts in the Congo alone have killed a million, perhaps even five million people in the last thirty years, mostly through disease and hunger. How many Europeans know this, and how many care?

The outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has further highlighted the divide between values, interests and the geopolitical significance. Russian troops have ravaged Ukraine and caused 35 160 civilian casualties, of which 23 640 were injured, although the actual figures are probably higher. 

Casualties in Gaza are far greater. According to the latest figures from the United Nations and aid groups, more than 44 000 Palestinians have been killed and more than 103 000 injured – 60 percent of them women, children or the elderly. 87 percent of the dwellings in have been damaged or destroyed, including 84 percent of health facilities and 70 percent of water and sewage facilities. Families have been urged to shelter in 'safe zones,' only to be bombed in tents. Countries such as Lithuania that claim to implement a values-based foreign policy have hardly uttered a word of criticism, while stridently condemning Russia's crimes.

Three events highlight the growing differences between the West and the rest. The closing statement of the G20 summit in November made no mention of Russian aggression, contenting itself with the platitude that the assembled heads of state welcomed 'all important and constructive initiatives in support of a comprehensive, just and lasting peace' in Ukraine. The text is much blander than the one adopted a year ago. Many Western leaders openly registered their disappointment. This is not the first time that the G-20 has defied the West. 

On 20 November, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The 14 other Council members, including France and the United Kingdom, voted in favour, arguing that the suffering, death, displacement and starvation in Gaza were catastrophic and unacceptable. These arguments have not won traction in Washington, but at last some allies have stopped kowtowing to the US and voted to end the killings. 

On 19 November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Y. Gallant and a Hamas leader. The court said it found "reasonable grounds" to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant were responsible for crimes including the use of starvation as a method of warfare, as well as "murder, persecution and other inhumane acts…systematically depriving Gaza's civilians of the necessities of human survival". The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called for the arrest warrants to be respected. "The court's decision…is binding on all parties, including all members of the European Union." Some EU countries have been slow to commit to the arrest warrants, but none has expressed an intention to ignore them.

The US response was combative and ill-tempered. The government stated that it “fundamentally disagrees” with the ICC decision, Biden himself called the arrest warrants “outrageous.” Republican lawmakers were even more strident in their condemnation: Senator Cotton condemned the ICC as a “lynch mob”, Senator Graham called for the US to impose sanctions on the ICC and its members. The US would further damage its image were it to take action against the ICC and other UN institutions. Third World countries have certainly not forgotten how the US joyfully welcomed the ICC’s decision to detain Putin.

The US is and will remain the most powerful country in the world. Its allies in Europe and Asia are more united and better organized. The Global South has fewer common interests and aspirations. India and China coexist with Russia, but are at loggerheads with one another. Pakistan and India are mortal enemies. The most powerful countries in Central and South America do not like the Yanks at all, but they are not imbued with love and respect for each other. The growing hostility between the West and the rest will have geopolitical repercussions.