TALLINN - The bustling university city of Tartu faces a major slowdown in the coming years because of a demographic squeeze.
Student enrollments are expected to fall drastically due to shrinking birth rates, threatening the viability of both the prestigious Tartu University and the city that supports it.
Tartu University's new rector Alar Karis told The Baltic Times much had to be done to ensure academic standards and course offerings were maintained during the student dearth, which is expected to hit by 2013 (see Q&A, page 14).
The situation is the result of a childbirth slump in the early 90s. The number of students finishing secondary school is expected to fall by as much as 50 percent when the post-independence generation reaches graduating age.
"It's a huge number (and) it's happening pretty fast," Karis said.
Niche subjects such as languages and arts, which already struggle to attract students, could face extinction. University funding could be reigned in as student numbers fall.
Demographers have expressed concern not just for the university but also for the city, which largely bases its economy around the student population. Tartu, Estonia's second largest city, is home to 100,000 residents, one fifth of whom are university students or staff.
Karis said one solution was to seek more collaboration with other Estonian universities. He said degrees, courses and facilities could be shared to keep minor subjects alive. More English-language subjects would have to be offered to attract foreign students and teachers.
"We are going to be more international, that's for sure… We need to develop more courses in English…It's a problem, because we also have to keep our own language going," Karis said.
The demographic challenges are currently being felt in the school system, which must reign in its resources as the school-aged population shrinks.
Katri Raik, deputy secretary general of the Ministry of Education, said overall numbers had fallen by 10,000 to 154,000.
"According to the prognosis, the number of children in general education schools will be only 135,000 in the 2010/2011 academic year," Raik said.
However this will not help the shortage of teachers, which will worsen in the coming years as many of the present school staff reach retirement age. Education authorities need to attract more teachers from an ever-diminishing pool of university graduates.
Raik said the impact on universities would be softened because their enrollment pool included mature-age students, not just school graduates.
Statistics show that birth rates hovered between 22,000 and 25,000 in the 1980s. A marked decline began in 1990, hitting a low of 12,000 in 1998. Figures have started to recover in recent years, reaching almost 15,000 in 2006.
Emeritus Professor Rein Taagepera, a demographer and social commentator, said more must be done to encourage families to expand.
"There has been progress in this area, but realizing the catastrophe Estonia and the culture is facing, much more should be done," Taagepera said.
He estimated that Tartu's university population would fall by up to 20 per cent. "A 20 per cent drop in the town's major industry is significant… Like all of Estonia, Tartu will develop a shortage of labor, because there are fewer students and fewer young workers in all sorts of occupations" Taagepera said.
A drop in real estate prices 's particularly for rental properties 's could be expected, although Taagepera said "the student drop will be a minor effect compared to the market drop in general real estate."
He said the city had to become more active in attracting more international conferences and encouraging new industries. The university would face a choice between lowering entrance standards or tightening its belt.
Taagepera said he held greater concern for private universities, which rely on the spill-over from the public university system.
"Tartu might undergo a drop of 20 percent, some private universities could drop by 50 per cent and will close," he predicted.
