RIGA - As the first round of parliamentary debate over the next president quickly approaches, Latvians are getting ready for an intense battle between political parties. The wildly popular incumbent Vaira Vike-Freiberga is set to leave office on July 7 without the option of running for another term. "This time it will be a very difficult election, much more so than in the past. […] It is a very difficult situation because of internal relations, domestic politics and the prominence of the current president.
This year there is an especially hot discussion about the next president," Andris Runcis, a political science professor at the University of Latvia, told The Baltic Times.
The coming presidential elections promises to be one of the most exciting since Latvia regained independence. There are a number of very ambitious parties vying for a shot at the post, and no candidate has yet emerged as a clear leader. "This will be a fight between parties, which is stronger and has more influence," Runcis said.
Parties in the ruling coalition hope to put their collective influence to good use, and have recently agreed to discuss putting forward a common coalition candidate, someone who would already have a large portion of the votes needed to become Latvia's new head of state.
Speaking of the plans to negotiate, People's Party lawmaker Janis Lagzdins said, "Considering the politically red-hot situation, I am sure that it would be in the interests of the coalition and the parliament to agree on a common candidate."
Latvia's Way and Latvia's First Party (LC/LPP) bloc leader Andris Berzins was a little bit more sceptical about the coalition's ability to successfully agree on a candidate. "We will participate in the negotiations and offer our candidate … I do not know if it will be possible to agree on one person, but it might reduce the candidates' list to two or three," he said.
Choosing a president in Latvia is a relatively convoluted and complicated process. The president is elected by Saeima (Latvian parliament), which goes through several rounds of debate over the candidates. An intense back and forth debate between the parties inevitably leads to a number of candidates being offered up as sacrifices and can make the eventual outcome very hard to predict.
Ultimately, the election process is an elite affair. "Public opinion will have some influence, but the main decision rests with the political parties," Runcis explained. And while parliamentarians need to keep voters happy, getting their candidate appointed president would give their party a massive amount of political sway.
Runcis pointed out that despite the rapid pace at which candidates are eliminated 's most are considered little more than sacrificial lambs to gain some foothold in the negotiations. The presidential debates, he says, largely focus on party strategy. "[This is about] long-term strategy: who will benefit in the future, [and which] party will be stronger in the future," he said.
Whatever the outcome of the negotiations and debates, the eventual winner of the upcoming elections will most likely be someone nobody expected. "This is a very unpredictable time, and there are not so many days left. If you remember when Vaira Vike-Freiberga was elected, she was very much a last minute candidate. Who knows who will be the last minute candidate this time," Runcis said.
At press time, the only party to officially declare a serious candidate was New Era, who will nominate Sandra Kalniete for the position.
The first parliamentary debate on the presidency is scheduled to take place on June 4.
