Is Trump vulnerable? The 2028 elections will tell us that!

Chinks are starting to appear in President D. Trump’s armor. Although he bestrides the globe as a colossus due to America’s overwhelming military and financial power and is likely to do so for perhaps another year, disappointment and opposition to his domestic policies are growing. 

The press and politicians are zeroing in on his weaknesses, including signs of frailty. California’s governor Gavin Newsom has dubbed him the Nodfather; the press has noted his swollen ankles and bruised hand and shown Trump gingerly descending the steps of Air Force One while tightly gripping the handrail, just as Joe Biden did. He has been caught nodding off more than once. Despite these problems, Trump is reasonably healthy for a man of his age, and his nodding off is counterbalanced by his vigorous traveling.

A far more serious problem is his steadily increasing unpopularity. A Washington Post average of polls taken in October showed that, but 40 percent of Americans, approved of his performance, while 57 percent disapproved – his worst month in office this term. And most of those who disapprove do so strongly.

While Republicans generally defer to his judgment and fear his wrath, not wanting to be challenged by a MAGA loyalist in the primaries, they are beginning to realize that disenchantment with Trump causes problems for their party, which is considered by many to be his lapdog. The off-year elections in November were swept by the Democrats, an ominous harbinger of what might be in store next November. Now not every wish of Trump is fulfilled. Republican senators brushed off his call for eliminating the filibuster in order to end the government shutdown, a rare sign of institutional self-respect.

Trump exudes optimism about the state of the economy and the ordinary consumer, claiming that “we are doing phenomenally well. This is the greatest economy we’ve ever had.” But gnawing doubts remain, and he seems to be considering measures that would strengthen his hand. In a recent post on his social-media platform, Trump said that a dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone. He has neither introduced legislation to do so nor offered a fuller explanation of how this largesse will be distributed, but the very idea suggests that he could resort to such a populist measure. There is a precedent: during the COVID crisis, most Americans received federal cash payments totaling up to $3,200 per adult. Balancing the budget no longer matters, so similar payments could be distributed, particularly because Trump will not need to deal with the fallout, since his term ends in January 2029.

The Democrats lost the presidency in 2024 primarily because citizens felt that rapidly rising costs were undermining their standard of living. This feeling trumped Democratic points about the soaring stock market, low levels of unemployment, and growing GDP. This focus on their lived experience that made voters turn away from the Democrats will remain, and this time to the detriment of the Republican Party.

The minority party usually fares badly –  often very badly – at the midterms. Frantic efforts by Republicans in many states to gerrymander electoral districts to improve their chances have led to similar measures by Democrats. Texas’s redistricting plan, which created five new electoral districts favorable to the party, led to California approving a referendum that allows the Democrat-dominated state legislature to draw the U.S. House-district maps.

The midterm elections are a major concern for Trump. A Democratic majority in the House would not only ensure that Trump’s legislative proposals would not be adopted; it would also greatly increase the chances that he would be impeached, as he was twice during his first term. 

I do not know if Trump believes that the polls are rigged against him, that they are fake news, or if members of his staff urge him to take them seriously. Politicians are prone to self-deception, Trump more so than most because of his overweening vanity. But against all odds he has been successful in part because of his ability to mobilize supporters, in part because his opponents were either heartily disliked, like H. Clinton, or simply incompetent as campaigners à la K. Harris. Trump will not be on the ballot next November, but the election will be about him. The verdict most likely will be crushing, and Trump will become a genuinely lame-duck president whose efforts to rule by executive orders will be challenged in the courts.

The 2028 elections will tell us if the Trump era has finally ended, whether it was based on his singular stature or whether it represented a deeper movement within American society. I hope that it is the former.