Chance of actual Ukraine-Russia peace talks is low - Constitution Protection Bureau

RIGA - The chance of actual negotiations on peace or even a temporary ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is low, at least in the coming six months, said the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) in its in the unclassified section of its report for 2024

With the growing war fatigue in the West, stagnant battlefield, and the incoming US administration’s announcements about ending the war in Ukraine, the potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were quite frequently discussed in 2024.

However, the chance of actual negotiations or even a temporary ceasefire is low, as the goals of the two countries are diametrically opposed, and none of them is ready for significant compromises, SAB said in its report.

SAB said that its indications suggest that Russia’s apparent readiness for a ceasefire does not equate to an actual interest in ending the war. Moscow just needs time to rebuild its forces for a much broader attack on Ukraine or even NATO. Gaining control over Ukraine is existentially important for Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular.

In 2024, Russia continued to demonstrate that it still aims to fully return Ukraine to Moscow’s perceived sphere of influence. Russia is not looking for peace: it wants Ukraine to surrender and give in to Moscow’s ultimatums. Having so far failed to achieve any of its initial goals, Moscow hopes that Ukraine will be forced to at least partially yield to Russia’s demands.

Russia is likely aware that it currently does not have sufficient military capabilities to achieve its maximalist goals on the battlefield alone. Instead, Moscow is trying to force Ukraine towards concessions through various influence measures. Last year (similarly to the year before), the Russian elite continued to believe that a false desire to start peace talks and end the war can be signaled from a position of strength. There were also threats and blackmail in Moscow’s rhetoric, namely, that Russian demands for potential peace must be met, or an escalation is to be expected, SAB noted.

The war fatigue of the Ukrainian army and society in general might also be a factor in the potential negotiations. In 2024, hostilities continued to stagnate, with neither side having sufficient military capabilities to launch major offensives or counterattacks and break through the front line. Russia was, however, in a better position overall, gradually continuing to occupy new territories and achieving tactical success - mostly due to Moscow’s quantitative superiority in terms of human resources.

Public opinion polls show growing support for peace talks as a tool to end the war. However, many Ukrainians remain opposed to talks, and the idea of returning occupied territories to Russia in exchange for ending the war is still unpopular. Meanwhile, Russia is almost certainly counting on the war-weary Ukrainian society to force the country’s political leadership to conclude a peace agreement - or at least a ceasefire agreement - with Moscow.

Last year, Russia devoted most of its efforts to exploit and deepen the war fatigue in the West. Moscow created various information influence campaigns and interfered in the domestic politics of the Western countries, including the electoral process. The Kremlin hoped to reach a critical mass that would force the West (primarily, the great powers) to reduce, if not stop, military support for Ukraine and put political pressure on Kyiv to conclude an agreement with Russia.

SAB said that a potential agreement would still not guarantee a lasting peace in Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly violated its commitments to Ukraine - the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which Ukraine had to relinquish its nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and the 2014 Minsk Agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Donbas.

A potential peace and cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would only be temporary, threatening the country’s long-term security and giving Russia time to restore its military capabilities. Concluding a peace treaty before Russia has suffered a significant political, economic or military blow will only reinforce Moscow’s belief that it is just a matter of time before the Kremlin reaches its goals. It would not change Russia’s perspective on the global order or what a great power is supposedly entitled to. Moscow will continue to perceive Ukraine and NATO as its existential enemies that must be resisted in every possible way.

A lasting peace can only be achieved through mechanisms that prevent Russia from launching any future attacks on Ukraine or even NATO. In the context of potential peace talks, the West needs to put pressure on Russia and limit its capabilities through intensified effort and continued sanctions. Moreover, a potential agreement should not be seen as a pretext to return to the relations that existed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the report says.

The Constitution Protection Bureau is a state security service. The main tasks of SAB include intelligence, counter-intelligence and protection of state (official) secrets.