Schindler: Putin's steps in Balkans can be expected during Donbass stalemate

TALLINN - At a time when Russia's war in Ukraine is stalemated without obvious resolution, Russian president Vladimir Putin will seek to push elsewhere and the Balkans offer the Russians easy provocations for that, John Schindler, American columnist, and former intelligence officer, said in an interview with BNS.

"The aborted GRU coup in Montenegro last fall was an example of how ugly the Kremlin wants to play the spy game," Schindler, who will be one of the speakers at the Lennart Meri Conference at the end of this week, said.

Provocations in the Balkans would distract NATO and cause the West to get bogged down in more messy conflicts, Schindler said.

"Putin is furious that Montenegro just voted to join the Atlantic Alliance, so we should expect unpleasant Russian pushback in southeastern Europe," the former National Security Agency intelligence analyst said.

"The fragile situation in Macedonia is a ripe target for Moscow, and NATO needs to be ready to tamp down aggressive Kremlin moves there in order to keep the shaky regional peace," Schindler said.

Schindler said that he believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict to be stalemated and that Putin has no idea what to do. "In a military sense, he can keep the war on a low-level boil -- intermitting shelling, small-scale attacks to keep Kyiv off balance -- but the Kremlin clearly lacks the stomach for a wider war."

Schindler said that in hindsight, Putin made a serious error in 2014 when he failed to create a real Novorossiya, in other words connecting "liberated" territory in eastern Ukraine with occupied Crimea.

"Three years ago, when Ukraine was on its back, militarily speaking, such an operation would have been relatively easy for Moscow. Now, it would be difficult and costly -- in political and economic as well as military terms. Occupation of a significant chunk of eastern Ukraine is a bridge to nowhere and the General Staff in Moscow knows it," Schindler said.

Schindler told BNS that the Kremlin, therefore, may eventually be open to some sort of parley, because unlike Crimea, the issue of which is settled as far as Moscow is concerned, Russian occupation of eastern Ukraine is a more open matter.

"The only thing Russia gets from its occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk is the ability to make life difficult for Kyiv," the former National Security Agency counterintelligence officer said.

This year's Lennart Meri Conference, entitled "Darkest Just Before the Dawn?: The War on Trust and How To Win It", will take place from May 12 to 14. The conference will consider the severe challenges facing the West and seek to identify the opportunities that may arise in these bleakest moments.

Among the speakers who will help find solutions to strategic challenges the West is facing at the Lennart Meri Conference are Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, EU high representative for foreign affairs Federica Mogherini, Italy's former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, Italy's European Affairs Minister Sandro Gozi, Georgia's Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis, Deputy Secretary General of NATO Rose Gottemoeller and India's former Foreign Minister Kanwal Sibal.

In addition to politicians and think tank representatives, the list of participants includes civil society activists from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Leading journalists active on social media, Michael Weiss and Ahmed Rashid, will help to give meaning to the topics of a post-truth era and information warfare. Stephen E. Biegun, corporate officer and vice president of International Governmental Affairs for Ford Motor Company, and writer and journalist Sarah Kendzior will be among the speakers to speak about the foreign policy of the new US administration.

Other topics to be discussed include the future of the European Union, the impact of populism on democracy, Russia's growing militancy in the information space and cyberspace, the conflict in Syria, China's growing influence -- the topics that demand not only answers but also fundamental readjustment and changes in the present world order.

The conference will kick off on May 12 at 4:30 p.m. at Radisson Blu Sky Hotel in Tallinn and end on the afternoon of May 14. The discussions will be streamed live on the website of the event.

The conference is organized by the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) and the Lennart Meri European Foundation. The conference's media partner is BNS. The organization of the conference is supported by the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Elering, Wihuri, NATO, Milrem, BAE Systems, Estonian Center of Eastern Partnership, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Defendec and Hanwha.