Russia will lose war not on battlefield, but in economy

RIGA - Russia will lose this war not on the battlefield, but in the economy, Latvian MEP Martins Stakis (Progressives) said in an interview with the Latvian public television.

In Stakis' view, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has won several victories from the recent talks. He stresses that this is not just a conventional war - it is also a war of narratives, in which Russia is actively trying to influence the international discourse.

For example, one narrative that Stakis believes has taken hold is the idea that the talks should be about peace, not ceasefire. This approach effectively gives Putin time to continue the hostilities in Ukraine.

The second narrative is linked to the idea of a territorial swap, which seems absurd to Stakis. He pointed out that Russia does not intend to offer any of its territories - its aim is to get the territories it wants with the promise that it might not conquer others. This narrative has been successfully disseminated in several media outlets, Stakis added.

The economic situation in Russia is another important factor. The Russian budget shortfall could widen significantly by the end of the year, according to Stakis. Oil and gas revenues are not as high as in previous years and the country has entered economic panic with people withdrawing money from banks, which may lead to the need to bail out financial institutions.

In this context, Stakis believes that the meeting with Western leaders may give Putin hope that the situation is not as bad as it seems. However, he stresses that it will actually be bad.

Ukraine and Europe have also won some victories. Stakis pointed out that American security guarantees to Europe will be maintained in the long term, which will allow Europe to support Ukraine more actively. He believes that the idea of a contingent of European peacekeepers in Ukraine is becoming more and more realistic.

Stakis believes that Russia will lose this war not in the battlefield but in economic terms. If the recession continues at such a rapid pace, Russia will have to cut spending on the war. Stakis referred to historical parallels, pointing out that in such circumstances countries are often forced to stop wars.