Russia currently lacks military capability to open another front against NATO countries - Sarts

RIGA - As long as Russia's war in Ukraine continues, Russia will lack the military capability to open another front against NATO countries, and there are no signs that Russia is currently preparing for such an attack, Janis Sarts, Director of NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence, said during LETA podcast "What Was That All About?! (Kas Tas Vispar Bija).

"Russia is and will remain a threat to us, but that does not mean it is going to happen right here and now," said Sarts. For a military attack to occur, Russia must be capable of carrying it out, but it currently lacks that capability. NATO, meanwhile, has been working on its defense plans, he said.

Russia's military capabilities are currently constrained by the war in Ukraine. "As long as the war in Ukraine continues, Russia is unable to open another military front against NATO countries, and there are no signs that it intends to do so," said Sarts.

At the same time, this does not mean that the Baltic countries are not under threat. The threat of hybrid attacks always exists, but it is not unique to the Baltics - similar threats also exist for Germany and France.

The situation could change if the war in Ukraine were to end and Russia were to gain time to rebuild its military capabilities. Russia would most likely continue to build up its military, but experts differ in their assessments of how quickly it could restore its capabilities for a larger-scale war, said Sarts.

Therefore it is essential to distinguish between an immediate military threat and a risk that could grow over the course of several years. "It is one thing to pour all your resources into capabilities because someone is going to attack you in two weeks. It is another thing to allocate resources with the understanding that there is a specific time frame in which they must be maximized. These are two different decisions," Sarts explained.

He also spoke critically on statements about a possible imminent Russian attack on the Baltic countries. Such scaremongering is counterproductive, he said, because it hinders serious discussions about what Latvia actually needs to prepare for.

"I like that we base our discussions on data and facts," said Sarts, emphasizing that defense decisions must be made by assessing the actual situation, rather than by maintaining a constant state of panic among the public.