Risk of conflict with Russia by 2030 showing upward trend - Lithuanian official

VILNIUS - The likelihood of a military conflict with Russia by 2030 is showing an upward trend, Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa said on Monday after the government approved an updated National Security Strategy.

"We say in the draft strategy that, given how Russia is developing its military capabilities, how it maintains the will to use military force and what ambitions it has toward European states and Ukraine, it is clear that Russia's military capabilities will grow," the deputy minister told reporters. "Looking toward 2030, the probability of a military conflict tends to increase."

"Putting this on a precise time horizon is speculative, but it is clear the time horizon has shortened from earlier assessments that spoke of a ten-year period. Now we are really talking about a growth in such probability in a three-to-five-year perspective," he said.

He added that this "time horizon" underpinned both the government's program and the revised security strategy, which prioritizes the development of a national military division, stronger comprehensive defense, the deployment of a German brigade and continued US military presence.

The likelihood of Russian aggression against Lithuania depends, among other factors, on how the war in Ukraine ends, including whether a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached, Aleksa said.

"This will determine how Russia can act and whether it will have free hands to deploy military capabilities," the deputy minister said, adding that the strategy expects Russian forces to continue strengthening near Lithuania's borders and in Kaliningrad.

Given Russia's willingness to use force and efforts to undermine allied unity, he said, "it would be difficult to conclude anything other than that this probability tends to increase."

The updated National Security Strategy reflects major shifts in the regional and global security environment following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

It aims to create conditions to comprehensively ensure the state's security by implementing a national security policy addressing the country's key challenges and by defining the strategy's core objective: strengthening deterrence and preparedness for national defense in the event of military aggression.

The document states that Lithuania and other countries in the region face an existential threat, citing the possibility that by 2030 Russia could develop the capabilities needed to wage a large-scale conventional war against NATO.

The strategy will next be reviewed by the State Defense Council before returning to the government and then going to the parliament for final approval.

Lithuania's current National Security Strategy was adopted in 2021. The document is updated periodically to reflect changes in the geopolitical environment.