THE GREAT RACE

  • 2002-06-06
Some observers will be keen to point out that Lithuania's third presidential elections since regaining independence, the date for which was proposed this week by the Parliament, could be a throwback to the days when old communist is pitted against Western modernizer. But there's more to it than that.

The two aging leaders in the popularity battle, one the reform-minded president, Valdas Adamkus, the other a prime minister who was once leader of the Lithuanian Communist Party, Algirdas Brazauskas, are both long in the tooth. They may yet pull out of the running.

Which leaves the other hopefuls, an unpredictable lot.

Arturas Paulauskas, a former general prosecutor, now parliamentary chairman, cast himself in the last presidential race in 1997 as a youthful man of the future. But voters couldn't help noticing that he was surrounded by shady figures from Lithuania's Soviet-era past. He lost in the second round by the narrowest of margins against Adamkus.

Even in a position of power, as leader of the minor partner in the ruling center-left Social Democrat coalition, he's an unknown quantity, having also been part of the previous center-right Liberal coalition.

Liberal Democrat leader Rolandas Paksas, meanwhile, has tried to kick-start his campaign by commenting on everything from preserving the Ignalina nuclear power plant, which has become a symbol of national pride in the face of EU demands to close it, bringing back the death penalty, and compulsory drug tests for schoolchildren. As a result, he has earned himself the reputation of a populist.

Another upstart, the Christian Democrats' Kazys Bobelis, got mired last month in an embarrassing scandal after an outburst about most Asians being criminals.

Perhaps fearing each other's sharp tongues, Paksas and Bobelis signed an agreement this week not to criticize each other during the campaign.

But all the rhetoric and empty slogans will quickly be dropped if they win. They will become pale, respectable politicians the day after the elections. The political system in Lithuania has matured enough to tame any individual player.

Old faces Kazimiera Prunskiene and Andrius Kubilius were both prime ministers in the 1990s, but are way down in the ratings war. They're not expecting to win. It's like the Olympics - the main idea is to take part, which in Lithuania means fair coverage in a free media and lots of free publicity.

This publicity will be handy for the next parliamentary elections in 2003, since personalities rather than party ideology is what people in the Baltics generally vote for.

However, none of the candidates are against joining the EU and NATO, Lithuania's foreign policy priorities. Most say that Ignalina - the biggest sticking-point in Lithuania-EU relations - should remain open, but this is pre-election posturing.

Adamkus would benefit from the widely expected invitation to join NATO at the Prague summit in November. But whatever the result of the December election, there is no chance Lithuania will opt out of its continuing integration with the West.