POLITICAL ANGEL

2002-03-21

Politics in the Baltics can be a cruel business. The hope and fate of a nation often rests on one pair of shoulders. Alliances and friends can be brutally betrayed. And all of this under the sarcastic eye of a (largely) independent press. So how has the unassuming character of Rolandas Paksas managed to prevail?

Paksas' friends stuck close by him as he shot from Vilnius mayor to Conservative prime minister to presidential advisor, back to Vilnius mayor, to Liberal prime minister, and his speedy dismissal from the Liberal Union, all in just over two years. They've now collected 1,540 signatures for his new Liberal Democratic Party, which will likely be registered in a couple of weeks.

Many of these signatures came from young people inspired by Paksas' advocacy of a free market unfettered by state bureaucracy. There should be as little government interference in business as possible, he says, something that may sound basic to westerners, but is fresh enough to Lithuania's struggling entrepreneurs.

There are too many cozy ties between business and politics in Lithuania - like Latvia and Estonia - and too many conflicts of interest. Bend the rules with the help of the insiders, and you'll be sure of bumper returns. It's this sort of institutionalized preferential corruption - whoever has the contacts gets the favors - the people congregating around Paksas want to banish.

Paksas, lean and innocent-looking, is the diametrical opposite of the blustering, tubby, red-faced former communist still respected by peasants and the poor - in Lithuania typified by Social Democrat leader Algirdas Brazauskas.

A professional pilot, Paksas is used to acting alone rather than in a team. For the masses he lacks charisma. He comes across as so honest they don't trust him. Like Tony Blair, his sincerity has limits.

Yet more than his contemporaries and former allies, he seems to believe in the truth, and will put his career on the line if he believes his country is being exploited. When he realized he couldn't prevent the 1999 oil deal with Williams, he resigned as prime minister, and resigned from the Conservative Party.

Though inexperienced, he played the bitter game of politics on wilier politicians' own terms and, for a while, came out on top. Perhaps Lithuanian voters will remember this during presidential elections due at the end of the year.