Latvia looks forward to eventful, prosperous 2002

  • 2002-01-10
  • Jorgen Johansson
RIGA - Parliamentary elections, further progress toward joining the European Union and NATO, and some healthy economic prospects are what Latvia has to look forward to in 2002.

The elections, due in September, could see two new political parties entering the political fray to battle for votes.

First, five Social Democrat deputies recently announced they would jump ship and form their own social democratic faction. This is not necessarily something to be viewed as positive. Independent political analyst Daina Bara said the split was the result of rival personalities, which means that the Social Democrats are not overly concerned about party values.

Another political analyst, Valts Kalnins, said the politicians who will participate in this new faction are those who haven't found their place within the Social Democratic party. They are little-known figures, which implies that it will be a party of minor importance.

Former central bank head Einars Repse and his soon-to-be-formed party New Times is, however, expected to pose a serious threat to well-established parties.

Repse has time and again promised to clean up the country's political scene by tackling corruption. So far he has presented only health care and foreign policy programs, but his popularity is on the rise after a modest slump at the end of last year.

The parliamentary committee on European affairs hopes to finish accession talks with the European Commission by the end of this year. To date, Latvia has closed 23 of the 31 negotiation chapters.

"The latest negotiation chapter was when we adopted a transport policy on Dec. 21," said Maris Ozols, the committee's spokesman.

Recent statements made by the European commissioner for enlargement, Gunter Verheugen, could make things difficult for Latvia. The commissioner has said on German national radio that countries seeking EU membership should be expected to join European Monetary Union as well, which means adopting the new euro - and therefore some tough decisions for EU candidates, whose economies are still in transition.

"We do not want to have the kind of problems we currently have with some of our members in the future," Verheugen said. "This means that all future members must also, as soon as they meet the criteria, adopt the euro."

Great Britain, Denmark and Sweden belong to the EU but have, for now, decided not to join the 12-nation euro zone.

Ozols said Verheugen's statements were news to him and he could not comment on them. He said there had not been much talk about EMU among Latvian politicians, and he was under the impression that if Latvia joined the EU in 2004 it would join EMU in 2006.

Where security policy issues are concerned, Latvia enters the year in high spirits. The nation is expecting to be invited to join NATO at the Prague summit to take place on Nov. 21-22.

"We have every reason to believe we'll be invited to join," said Nils Jansons, head of the Foreign Ministry's NATO division. "I don't see anything happening that could diminish our chances. Not even the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States decreased our chances, but rather increased them (due to the ongoing push for global security)."

Jansons also spoke of improved relations with Russia as a precondition for the Baltic states to join the alliance. NATO officials have confirmed the same thing, saying the organization will not be striking any deals with Russia when it comes to expansion.

The World Bank puts Latvia on the same path of rapid growth as previous years. Toms Baumanis, spokesman for the World Bank's Latvia branch, said GDP growth will probably remain at about 6 percent this year.

But the bank adds that Latvia will need to keep up its efforts to improve macroeconomic balances, in particular through additional increases in public sector savings, so as to better balance its current account.

"In addition, to continue its strong growth performance, Latvia should vigorously implement remaining structural reforms including the social sector, public administration and expenditure management, labor markets and regional development," the World Bank's forecast reads.