Speculation mounts on Zatlers’ second term

DAUGAVPILS - In recent days the media have been increasingly animated about the upcoming presidential elections due to take place in May. And it is no surprise, reported news agency LETA on Jan. 2, that the election for the president of Latvia will be one of the main events in politics in 2011.

The presidential elections are  one of the regular ‘noteworthy’ political events in Latvia, similar to the elections of the Parliament and the adoption of the state budget. Indeed, the first half of 2011 will be dedicated to debates about the presidential candidates and certainly the presidential elections will influence the political situation in the Parliament. Moreover, one can expect an unforeseen step from President Valdis Zatlers’ side. “Repeated candidacy is considered as a tradition in Latvia and, unless the president has, for example, serious health problems, withdrawal from it would mean that he does not feel right in his office or that there are significant discrepancies between the parliamentary majority and the president,” Valts Kalnins, senior researcher of the Center for Public Policy Providus, told The Baltic Times.

Political scientist Anna Dravniece in her paper ‘The Role of the State Presidency in the Consolidation of Democracy’ (2009) came to the conclusion that if we compare the presidencies of Guntis Ulmanis, Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Valdis Zatlers, then one can conclude that former President Ulmanis represented a ‘passive positive’ scope of leadership compared to Vike-Freiberga and Zatlers, who have represented an ‘active positive’ scope of leadership.

In political scientist Kalnins’ view, Zatlers began his presidency at a very low level of preparedness, though through his experience this has significantly increased. To Kalnins’ mind, Zatlers has tried to promote democracy and bridge the gap between political elites and the wider community (for instance, in his amendment proposal to the Constitution to allow one-tenth of the electorate to propose the dissolution of the Saeima). “He also managed to fulfill his role in representing the country in the international arena without significant errors. At the same time, as a whole, he is characterized by an ad-hoc style policy with no obvious strategy,” said Kalnins.

Other political scientists also evaluate Zatlers’ presidency positively. Associate professor of Vidzeme University Feliciana Rajevska told TBT that she evaluates the presidency of Zatlers in a positive light. To her, Zatlers has gradually turned into a state president who really cares about national interests. “He has not yet exhausted his potential, and if the Parliament will entrust him to continue to a second term, he will build on his experience and reputation,” said Rajevska.

On Jan. 5 there was a meeting between President Zatlers and Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis (Unity). President Zatlers’ term in office ends on July 7, and he has not yet expressed his wish to run for a second term. In this meeting the question was raised by reporters as to whether Zatlers will run for a second term, and what would be the prerequisites for him to stand as a candidate again. The president gave the following answer: “Everything will happen according to the law, and when the candidates will be nominated, I will answer this question. Follow the events and you will get answers to your questions.”

Political scientist Ivars Ijabs, assistant professor of the University of Latvia, acknowledged to LETA on Jan. 4 that Zatlers’ chances of getting re-elected are rather poor. To Ijabs’ mind Zatlers is now in such a situation that nobody would like to be in, he says. “At this moment he has the desire to symbolize a fight against the system which elected him. Because of this reason, there are obstacles for Zatlers, as he is not a favorite - not in one camp, nor in the other,” Ijabs said. “The position of the president has directly influenced the situation that crusty political parties cannot threaten the stability of the government anymore. Zatlers, despite all the shortcomings of his presidency (about which it is worth speaking about), has started to play an independent game,” points out Ijabs.

Other experts have the opposite opinion about Zatlers’ chances to be re-elected. On Jan. 5, lecturer at University of Liepaja, Arijs Orlovskis, said in the interview to Rietumu Radio that most likely a compromise figure in the next presidential elections would be the current President Zatlers himself. “This is a necessity for the survival of the fragile coalition government,” he asserted.

Kalnins said that it would be unexpected for Zatlers not to be a candidate for the second term. ‘In a way, Zatlers’ unwillingness to stand for a second time would prove that, as elected in a preposterous process the first time, he has not significantly increased his ‘weak starting capital’ during his presidency.”

LETA reported on Jan. 2 that the chairman of Greens and Farmers’ Union (ZZS), Augusts Brigmanis, promises that ZZS will decide on their potential candidates in the middle of the spring. Harmony Center has promised to inform the public in April or May, although Harmony Center and Unity have already expressed the opinion that it is likely that Zatlers would be nominated for the second term.

To the contrary, Orlovskis believes that presidential candidates should have to be named before the parliamentary elections that took place last October. This should be done so that society could discuss the possible candidates. “All previous presidents were ‘dark horses,’ little-known to the public,” said Orlovskis.

Political scientists agree that the candidate for the president’s post should have a clear, strategic vision about national interests and the country’s development. Rajevska has expressed an opinion that “the candidate for the president’s office should have a comprehensive vision about national interests, as well as have the trust of politicians and society.”
Kalnins holds this same view: ‘The candidate should enjoy the fullest possible trust of society. He should have at least an outline of a strategic vision for national development, which would serve as a leitmotif when the president (taking into consideration his powers) would be involved in the political processes. Of course, he should also have knowledge and skills (e.g. knowledge of foreign languages, etc.), which would allow him successfully represent the country internationally,” says Kalnins.

One can say that Zatlers had no experience in politics before he took the position of president in 2007. Moreover, he had a difficult starting point (i.e., the Corruption Prevention Bureau - KNAB – investigated, before his election, the case of private donations that Zatlers had accepted as a physician) and was caught up in the time of financial crisis. Despite all these obstacles, he refused to be the “observer,” and came up with clear goals, especially one in favor of a directly elected presidency, and brought forward the debate about the extension of presidential powers. In Zatlers’ view this would promote the involvement of citizens in the political processes and serve an increase of public accountability.

On one hand it has become a political tradition for the Latvian president to run for a second term; on the other hand, the ruling coalition had tended to announce a ‘dark horse’ just a few days before the official deadline for the nomination of presidential candidates, says Orlovskis. There are therefore political parties and political experts who have emphasized the high chances of Zatlers being re-elected for a second term, while others have predicted that Zatlers will refuse to run a second time. Recalling Zatlers’ own phrase in anticipation of the outcome of the presidential election, we’ll just have to follow the events, and will get answers to our questions in due time.