VILNIUS – Lithuania's economy will probably not avoid a recession in 2020 but strong GDP growth should follow in 2021, economists from Luminor bank estimate.
They say Lithuania's economy is likely to shrink around 2.5 percent this year, but grow 6.5 percent next year.
"A recession is practically unavoidable but if we assume that the virus is taken under control by June, then 2021 should be a rather impressive year," Zygimantas Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor, told a conference to present the bank's economic forecasts.
In his words, when issuing their forecasts, Luminor economists assume that the virus will be contained by June.
"Viruses come and go. People are able to contain their spread or invent vaccines. There's a good chance that the virus will stay for a couple of quarters and we will see a different situation in June already," Mauricas said.
"We based our forecasts on an assumption that the virus epidemic will be contained by June. It’s neither an optimistic nor a pessimistic forecast," he added.