Hybrid attacks, not open war, remain the most credible threat to Latvia - Pudans

RIGA - Hybrid attacks, not open war, remain the most credible threat to Latvia, Kaspars Pudans, the nominee for the post of Commander of the National Armed Forces (NBS), said in an interview with the weekly news magazine Ir.

Pudans has set as his main goal to do everything possible to actively maintain what the NBS has already established and is developing - mobility, firepower capabilities, capabilities in cyberspace, information space and also in terms of personnel, which includes the National Defense Service and the formation of the reserve.

"My conviction is to push everything in three main directions. The first is to do everything we can to prepare our capability not to lose a war before it has even started. We have done a lot in the last ten years to strengthen our readiness. To be able to fight against hybrid threats, which remain the most credible threat to us. Then, as the hybrid threat evolves into a conventional attack, the first step we will face is air strikes. The key is to become not only broader in space, where we are no longer just focusing on protecting our units and critical infrastructure, but also deeper in multiple layers, which need to be developed. Because this has an impact on our capacity to act. If we are overwhelmed from the air, we will be tied down and our allies will not be able to come to our aid as quickly," Pudans said.

The second priority is to stop the enemy as quickly as possible on the border and not allow them to go deeper. "This has already started - anti-mobility, engineering obstacles, further effective development of the Baltic defense line," the officer said, "the next element is firepower, which is capable of hitting the stopped adversary right away deep inside Russian territory. The third priority is therefore long-range weapons. The same HIMARS that have already proven themselves, but we need to look in other directions. The sea border is also essential, to destroy the enemy at the outset. These three are the minimum steps."

Asked if it is safe to say that there will be no war in Latvia next year, Pudans said, "I believe not."

He admitted, however, that the attack on Ukraine has shown that Russia is ready to use conventional force to achieve its objectives, while the military capabilities are no longer adequate to launch an attack in the Baltic region.

"We have always been convinced that a conventional military attack will never affect just one of our countries. On the border and in depth, these forces are not at the level they need to be. The most credible scenario is hybrid threats, sabotage, involving special forces, intelligence forces. Would we call that a war? Probably not. It would be a conflict, a hybrid threat, a hybrid war. It certainly exists in the minds of Putin and his subordinates. The most important thing is to prepare for it," the military official said.

Pudans admitted that airspace violations would be possible from the Russian side, "where one scenario is to fly in, bomb, come back and wait to see what the reaction will be - or if a response will follow, especially if their soldiers are no longer on our territory". "But no matter what decisions are taken elsewhere, the three Baltic States are united and will defend themselves," the officer stressed.

According to Pudans, an open war is not a likely scenario at the moment, as Russia needs years to prepare for it. "[In Ukraine] they have failed and there is definitely an understanding that something needs to be done. And it's not just rearmament, which is the easy part - their industry is still capable of producing, maybe not the smartest technology, but machines and equipment. What is not so easy to rebuild is the commanding staff. They will mobilize forcibly or buy and recruit from the masses - soldiers - but it is impossible to prepare commanders so quickly. Those who will return from Ukraine - I hope not many - are the most dangerous commanders for us, who in a few years will already be commanders of regiments, brigades," Pudans noted.

Because of these circumstances, Pudans believes Russia is not yet ready to take these risks next year. "But this does not mean that we should underestimate the Russian side and believe that we have three, four or ten years. We have to be ready today to defend ourselves with what we have, and that is what we will do," the current Commander of the National Guard said.

On the war in Ukraine, Pudans admitted that it can only be fully resolved in Moscow if the Russian people stand up to the Putin regime. "It is clear that there will be no easy solution. I understand and fully support Ukraine's desire, how they see their victory in having regained their territory. Any solution that will have a frozen conflict, with Russian soldiers remaining in the occupied territories of Ukraine, will certainly not bring peace. Not for Ukraine and not for Europe as a whole. It will only be a breathing space to prepare for something further on the Russian side," Pudans stressed.

The officer acknowledged that the West has so far not supported Ukraine militarily enough. "We need to give what is necessary for victory, not just what we have given so far as the West to avoid losing the war," said Pudans, noting with regret that with what we are giving to Ukraine now, he does not see the possibility of an end to the war in which the Russian army in Ukraine is convincingly defeated.