With election of new President, there is no reason to think of radical changes in Poland's foreign policy - former ambassador

RIGA - With the election of the new President of Poland Karol Nawrocki, there is no reason to think about radical changes in the country's foreign policy guidelines, Einars Semanis, former Latvian ambassador to Poland and senior research fellow at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LAI), told LETA.

He said that during Nawrocki's presidency he could be expected to follow the basic principles of the national-conservative Law and Justice party. This means a critical attitude towards the European Union (EU), a difficult stance towards Ukraine due to the difficult history of both countries, including the Volhynia tragedy. Semanis noted that the newly elected President of Poland is a professional historian, so it can be assumed that historical facts will be recalled more often.

The senior researcher at the LAI stressed that Poland's position on Ukraine is closely linked to its unwavering condemnation of Russian aggression. The former ambassador noted that Nawrocki is in favor of strong support for Ukraine, but he does not support Ukraine's accession to NATO while Russian aggression in Ukraine is ongoing. The new Polish President has also called for a reduction in support for Ukrainian refugees, which is linked to a certain fatigue among the Polish population.

Semanis underlined analysts' positions that Poland has an interest in Ukraine holding out in the war. He concluded that this is Poland's clear position because if Ukraine falls in the war, Poland knows which country will be next.

"If we talk about the new president's guidelines on this issue, I think there is no fundamental change in Poland's position," Semanis said.

Asked what cooperation between Nawrocki and the ruling coalition could look like, the senior researcher said the election results reflect the fact that Polish society has traditionally been divided into so-called "patriotic" Poland and "liberal-European" Poland.

In his view, the newly elected Polish President could put the brakes on the government's European-oriented initiatives, as he has veto power over bills, while the ruling coalition lacks the votes in Parliament to override a presidential veto.

Semanis expressed the likelihood that initiatives by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government to reform the judicial sphere, such as the procedure for appointing judges, would be slowed down. This is about reducing the influence of politics in the judicial sphere.

In the view of a senior expert at the LAI, the same applies to the liberalization of abortion legislation and changes to the law on civil partnerships for same-sex couples. In his view, Nawrocki is against a Brussels orientation when it comes to foreign policy. The President-elect highlights Poland's "solo" role.

Also, according to a senior researcher at the LAI, the newly elected Polish President is against the EU's green policy. However, according to Semanis, this does not mean that Nawrocki will somehow put the brakes on or block everything; there could be some agreements, for example in the field of finance or taxation.

"It is obvious that the division is quite deep. That is why some analysts suggest that new parliamentary elections could theoretically be called in Poland. Prime Minister Tusk recognizes that the situation is indeed very serious, but he is not going to "take a step backwards when it comes to implementing reforms," Semanis said.

Asked what the new President means for Latvia and the region, the senior researcher at the LAI said that Poland is a very important ally for Latvia in the region and in the European security context in general. He pointed out that in this dimension Poland remains a fundamentally important partner for Latvia and, according to Semanis, the positions of the new Polish President confirm this. The former ambassador stressed that this is of crucial importance for Latvia's security, especially in the context of support to Ukraine.