Ukraine's attacks may force Russia to react according to nuclear doctrine - military expert

RIGA - The recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian military facilities may make Russia think about the need to react in accordance with its nuclear deterrence doctrine updated last year, Latvian military expert Martins Verdins told TV3 this morning.

The doctrine sets out the conditions under which Russia would be prepared to react with a nuclear response. "If you go through the Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine, there are at least three triggers that, according to their own doctrine, they should act on in a particular way," he said, while admitting that it is clear that Russia is not ready to respond yet.

Assessing the Ukrainian drone strike on Russian airfields, Verdins acknowledged that it would have some impact on Russia's military capabilities, but it was unlikely to be a decisive turning point in the overall war. However, these events are important in the context of the peace talks in Istanbul and the pending sanctions bill against Russia in the US Congress, the analyst believes.

Commenting on the announcement by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday that Ukrainians had blown up the supports of the Crimean bridge under water, Verdins reminded that even the complete destruction of the bridge would not exclude the delivery of Russian military equipment and weapons to Crimea via the land railway line.

At the same time, the expert acknowledged that the events of the last few days in the Russia-Ukraine war, in particular the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields, remind that such operations can still take place, and not only by Ukraine.

Although the military solutions in the drone operation were relatively simple, the organizational scheme of infiltration by the Ukrainians and managing the whole process is complex and we have to bear in mind that a similar model could be used against Ukraine or NATO countries, the expert said, stressing that we have to be prepared for this by taking anti-drone defense to a whole new level and paying due attention to space communications.

The AFP news agency reports that Ukraine said Sunday it destroyed Russian bombers worth billions of dollars as far away as Siberia, in its longest-range assault of the war as it geared up for talks on prospects for a ceasefire.

In a spectacular claim, Ukraine said it damaged USD 7 billion worth of Russian aircraft parked at four airbases thousands of kilometres (miles) away, with unverified video footage showing aircraft engulfed in flames and black smoke.

A source in the Ukrainian security services (SBU) said the strikes hit 41 planes that were used to "bomb Ukrainian villages".

The drones were concealed in the ceilings of transportation containers which were opened up to release them for the assault, the source added.

Ukraine President Volodomyr Zelensky hailed the "brilliant" results of the coordinated attack -- code-named "Spider's Web" -- which he said had used 117 drones and was the country's "most long-range operation" in more than three years of war.