Trump sees possibility that Ukraine could hasten end of war with deep strikes in Russia - expert

RIGA - US President Donald Trump may see an opportunity that Ukraine, by striking deep into Russian territory, can bring an end to the war sooner and bring Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, Maris Andzans, associate professor at Riga Stradins University (RSU) and director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, told LETA.

Commenting on the statements of the US President's special envoy Keith Kellogg that Washington is not opposed to such long-range strikes, Andzans stressed that "one should expect a formal confirmation, but there is not always one". He believes it is credible that Trump has given the green light for strikes on Russian territory, which is in line with his change of rhetoric.

"Trump is disappointed in Putin. During the UN General Assembly, the US President surprised even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with his goodwill towards Ukraine. It tends to be the case that Trump leans towards the side of the last person he meets, and during the Assembly he met both with Zelensky and with Western leaders," Andzans noted.

In his view, this step fits into the political background as "a self-proclaimed peacemaker sees an opportunity to achieve peace through strength". The expert added that Trump often speaks firmly, but "actions do not always follow". He drew parallels with the Iran-Israel war in June, when Israel attacked Iran, the US joined in with strikes, but later, when Iran shelled Qatar, where a US base is located, Trump "pretty quickly forced Israel to end the war".

As for Ukraine's capabilities, Andzans noted that "one is Trump's permission, the other is Ukraine's ability to carry out such strikes". He reminded that France and the UK had previously given Ukraine SCALP or Storm Shadow missiles, which can be fired from aircraft, but that their use against Russia was subject to authorization.

The expert added that these missiles have already been used in attacks in Crimea, the Kursk region and elsewhere, but it is not clear whether Ukraine has enough Western-made long-range missiles capable of reaching deeper targets. He reminded that Zelensky has also asked for Tomahawk missiles, but "while Trump has not yet decided whether or not to give Ukraine these missiles, it will take time for them to reach Ukraine and for the Ukrainians to learn how to use them".

"So it is one thing to say it, but it is another thing - until Ukraine has long-range missiles, Ukraine cannot launch such strikes. It depends on the capability. Ukraine is successfully using drones to carry out strikes in Russia. "Tomahawk missiles could be a good addition, although they are modernized, they are about 40 years old, according to publicly available information," Andzans said.

Overall, the move is a clear signal to Putin that Trump is expressing his displeasure not only in words but also in actions, according to Andzans.

"Ukraine might feel more encouraged to use its drones over more symbolic places in Russia, even though they are better protected. It could also encourage Ukraine to be more aggressive with the drones that it has," said the RSU associate professor.