RIGA - At the moment, there are no military prerequisites for the Ukrainian army to liberate the Russian-occupied coastal areas in the south of the country, Raimonds Graube, the military advisor to Minister of Defense Artis Pabriks (For Development), and the former commander of the National Armed Forces (NBS), told LETA.
In order to carry out such an operation, Ukraine needs accurate long-range weapons from Western countries in sufficient quantities. Graube believes that the West should increase the volumes of deliveries, because, judging by publicly available information, the current volumes are not yet sufficient.
Although the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky gave the order to the army to liberate the coastal areas occupied by Russia in the south of the country, such a statement by Ukraine can be evaluated from two sides.
First of all, it can be considered as a part of the information war campaign, which means that such announcements have great psychological significance that Ukraine is moving from defense to liberation.
Secondly, this statement should be evaluated from the military perspective, that is, the weapons from the West have proven themselves and this is demoralizing the opponent and forcing them to revise their plans.
"Russian resupply units in the east of Ukraine have suffered quite seriously, there has been an operational pause, so Ukraine can use this situation to its advantage for operations in the south. Even if the potential attack fails, it forces Russia to redeploy its forces on a wider front," Graube emphasized.
Evaluating if and when significant turning points are expected in this war, the expert pointed out that everything will depend on two factors: how the rearming of Ukraine with Western technologies will proceed and how Russia will resolve the issue of mobilization. The latter applies not only to human resources, but also to armaments.
"The truth is, as the activity of the last month shows, the Russians have no shortage of artillery and this seems to be the only way they have left," added Graube.
He also expressed the opinion that he is quite sure that at least part of the Russian military leadership understands the reality of the war, however, at the level of Russian President Vladimir Putin, they are not operating with true information.
"In the course of the war, it can be seen that there is a fear of reporting the truth, information does not reach the political levels, because then the behavior would be different. At Putin's level, they do not operate with true information. Lies live in this space and are reflected in what is happening, and this is a parallel reality," added Graube.