As sociological surveys have indicated, the so-called left-wing parties won the 2024 Seimas elections. The political pendulum swung, as the previous ruling majority had been composed of right-wing parties. I refer to them without the epithet "so-called" because, according to the European spectrum of political identity, they are indeed right-wing parties. Meanwhile, the identity of the current ruling coalition parties is more ambiguous.
The identity of the Social Democratic Party is the clearest. Throughout its history, there has been little doubt that its name aligns with its actions. Opponents of this party sometimes remind the public that about twenty years ago, it merged with the Soviet communists, who had renamed themselves the Democratic Labor Party. Today, there are almost no former communists left in the party, as most have either passed away or retired. The current Social Democrats were mostly children during the Soviet era or were born in a free Lithuania. They genuinely understand modern social-democratic ideology and see how it differs from conservatism and liberalism.
The identity of another coalition member, the Democratic Union "For Lithuania," is less clear. This party was founded in 2022 after splitting from the declining Farmers' Union. The Democratic Union describes itself as a center-left political force committed to applying the highest principles of ethical politics, public interest supremacy, a culture of dialogue, professionalism, and democracy. In reality, this party lacks a strong ideological foundation, but left-wing voters still support it, likely due to its relatively popular leader, Saulius Skvernelis, who served as Prime Minister from 2016 to 2020 with notable success, having been appointed by the Farmers' Union.
This party is not very popular; in the latest Seimas elections, it received about 10% of the vote in the multi-member constituency—less than half the votes received by the Social Democrats. Due to the parliamentary election system, forming a majority often requires three parties (rarely just two), making smaller parties with few mandates (the Democrats hold 14 seats) important members of the ruling majority.
The third coalition member, Nemuno Ausra ("Nemunas' Dawn"), has an even less defined identity. From a political science perspective, Nemuno Ausra is not yet a party (and likely never will be). It is more of a list of candidates led by a popular leader, including both experienced politicians and complete newcomers.
The list was assembled by long-time Seimas member R. Zemaitaitis, who was declared by the Constitutional Court in spring 2024 to have violated his oath and the Constitution. To avoid an impeachment process that would have barred him from politics for ten years, R. Zemaitaitis resigned and immediately began campaigning for new elections. According to media reports, he visited many regions of Lithuania and personally interacted with numerous potential voters.
R. Zemaitaitis, a naturally energetic and outspoken figure, harshly criticized the ruling coalition at the time, particularly its largest party, the Homeland Union. His criticisms resonated well—sociological surveys had long shown that more than half of the electorate viewed this party negatively or very negatively. Another significant factor was the tendency of some voters in every parliamentary election to seek new "saviors" by supporting entirely new parties.
An energetic leader, sharp criticism of the ruling majority, and voters’ desire for new "saviors" contributed to Nemuno Ausra performing relatively well in the elections, garnering nearly 15% of the vote in the multi-member constituency. Initially, the Social Democrats promised not to invite this party into the coalition due to R. Zemaitaitis’ public statements and the legal cases against him, but they broke their promise.
After difficult and heated negotiations, a coalition agreement was signed, although the Social Democrats conceded too much to their partners. While one might expect a smooth collaboration between the Seimas and the government, R. Zemaitaitis himself began causing turmoil, making new demands of his partners. His latest demand—to rewrite the coalition agreement—was met with resistance.
R. Zemaitaitis has threatened to leave the coalition if his demands are not met, but it is unclear whether all members of his faction would follow suit. Most of these individuals likely joined the Seimas to be in power, not in opposition. Signs of a potential split within the faction are already evident. If the faction splits, R. Zemaitaitis’ political weight will diminish.
The Social Democrats and Democrats have a backup plan—they could invite the small Farmers' Union faction (8 seats) into the coalition. However, this would cause disruption, requiring new negotiations over the coalition agreement—or, in other words, over posts.
It is difficult to predict the future of this ruling majority. It seems that R. Zemaitaitis will not abandon the tactics that brought him back to the Seimas and will continue building his popularity through various demands and criticism of his partners. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the personal interests of Nemuno Ausra faction members, which may not align with those of their leader.
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