RIGA - The Belarusian people are oppressed and remain disaffected with the regime of dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Beate Livdanska, researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LAI) and guest lecturer at Riga Stradins University, told LETA.
She pointed out that over the past five years, the Lukashenko regime has done everything in its power to allow the dictator to usurp power even further through repression, and to introduce an "absolute regime of fear" in society, cracking down on both the population and the opposition outside Belarus' borders.
Livdanska noted that after the previous elections, opposition leaders were either "exiled" abroad en masse or left Belarus themselves to avoid imprisonment and repression. She mentioned that Belarusian residents can now also be imprisoned for minor offences, such as "liking" a post on social media that is perceived as anti-regime, thus leading to punishment for extremist activity.
According to the LAI researcher, there are currently more than 1,300 political prisoners in Belarusian prisons. Freedom of speech is repressed, assembly is banned and there is no independent media. She stressed that under these circumstances, where repression against Belarusian society has escalated, society is in a constant state of fear for its survival if any resistance to the regime is shown.
"At the moment, of course, any protest movement is impossible. The regime has indeed done its utmost not only to repress the people but also to intimidate them. The risk - of taking to the streets like five years ago - is simply too great," said Livdanska.
She believes that the West must continue to support democratic Belarusian forces, the democratic opposition outside Belarus. A tougher sanctions regime against Belarus is also needed. The LAI researcher stressed that in the long term sanctions have an impact on the dictator and his activities.
She stressed that Belarusian civil society should be supported at the same time. According to Livdanska, despite the fact that there were no protests on the streets of Belarus last week, protests took place in the Belarusian diaspora. The researcher pointed out that the first and foremost duty of the West is to support Belarusian civil society.
As for the elections in Belarus, the LAI researcher explained that they were notable for another development: the ability of Belarusians outside Belarus to vote in consulates and embassies was restricted. She suggested that if the outcome of the elections had been different, it would only have been because of the diaspora, as could be seen in the 2020 elections.
In Livdanska's view, if such a scenario were to come true, Belarus would face a situation similar to Moldova, where Maia Sandu became President because the diaspora voted for her. She agreed that the level of repression in these elections was so huge that Lukashenko was trying to hedge against this eventuality as well.
The LAI researcher also added that any pressure against Belarus, including political statements from Western leaders and European Union member states that the elections were not legitimate, is a small but significant political gesture. She concluded that the pressure against Belarus must continue in order to bring the country closer to a positive change, namely democratization, possibly in the future.
The AFP news agency reports that Belarus autocrat Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, won a seventh consecutive term in office Sunday in an election denounced by the European Union and the exiled opposition.
With his opponents in prison or exiled, the 70-year-old ruler appeared to have won 87.6 percent of the vote, according to an official exit poll.
Lukashenko has orchestrated a ruthless crackdown on opponents since huge protests against him in 2020. This time around, the candidates picked to run against him actually campaigned in his favor.
Exiled opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya called the election a "farce", while the EU described it as a "sham".
Lukashenko, however, said he did not care whether or not the bloc recognized the results.
And he had "no regrets" over letting his "older brother" Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops enter Ukraine through Belarus in 2022 -- despite hundreds of thousands of deaths in the three-year conflict.
The vote took place five years into a wave of heightened repression in Belarus, during which time rights groups say the country has jailed more than 1,200 political prisoners.
In Sunday's election victory he won more of the vote than in 2020, when he won 81.04 percent.
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