The battle for Riga: The current leadership versus Latvia’s Trump

No one is hiding or pretending. In the fight for the keys to one of the largest Baltic cities, Riga, two opposing movements will clash: the current leadership and the forces led by experienced politician Ainars Slesers.

The next Riga City Council elections are scheduled for June 2025. These elections will determine the composition of the council, which will subsequently elect the city's mayor. The submission of electoral lists is expected to begin in March 2025.

But this is a case where one is not talking about individual parties, but movements. On one side is the majority coalition of the current Riga City Council, led by the current Riga Mayor Vilnis Ķirsis from “New Unity.” On the other side is the movement led by the former Minister of Transport, a current Latvian Parliament (Saeima) member, and a so-called oligarch who has in recent years been dubbed the Latvian Donald Trump—populist Ainars Slesers.

Some parties have not aligned themselves with either of these trends. For example, “Progressives” and the National Alliance, which are part of the current Riga City Council coalition, have nominated their own candidates for the Riga mayor’s office. Moreover, “Progressives,” or at least one of their most prominent politicians, Martiņš Kossovičs, is a known critic of Ķirsis.

And yet, the main opposition is clear: the current coalition against Slesers. This fight can also be viewed differently: the current leadership versus the previous one, when Slesers was the vice-mayor of Riga for a time. Or another framing: the current coalition, mainly supported by the Latvian-speaking population of the capital, versus Slesers’ forces, which are primarily backed by Russian-speaking residents.

From this perspective, both the “Progressives” and the National Alliance will likely support Ķirsis’ forces. It is hard to imagine the “Progressives” uniting with the much-criticized “old” Riga leadership. Similarly, the National Alliance, which has consistently expressed concerns about Latvian rights in Latvia, is unlikely to join forces with Slesers. However, such cooperation might only start after the elections. Until 7 June, when the elections are scheduled, political parties may exchange criticism and even insults.

Ķirsis insists, “We must not go back in that direction.” He refers to the times when Usakovs and Slesers ruled the city. Five years ago, according to him, investors, the European Union, and banks did not trust Riga's municipality. Now, things have changed. Indeed, under Usakovs’ party “Harmony,” Riga was embroiled in corruption scandals. Now, since “Harmony’s” leaders announced their opposition to Russia’s full-scale war and invasion of Ukraine, the party has lost popularity and could become an ally of Slesers. Whether “Harmony” will even secure seats in the Riga Municipality remains an open question.

In other words, Ķirsis and his allies promise to continue Riga’s gradual development without scandals or corruption.

Unlike the gray and even boring Ķirsis, Slesers is significantly more charismatic and visible. Once nicknamed “The Bulldozer” for his unyielding, brazen, and robust character, Slesers, despite his considerable experience, shamelessly advocates for ushering in a modern era for Riga. His connection to Trump extends beyond rhetorical techniques, such as “saying whatever’s on his mind,” or their shared experience in business. They even collaborated on a business project in Riga. Slesers also mirrors Trump in his slogans: while Trump proclaims “America First,” Slesers founded a political party called “Latvia First” in 2021.

Unlike others, Slesers insists he is indispensable. “I can survive without the Riga mayor’s office—I have a family, I have things to do. But if I leave, then you will be in such a mess (..) You will live in such a swamp! You need Slesers now more than ever,” he preached in October. His speeches in both Latvian and Russian are an obvious appeal to Russian-speaking residents. Slesers promises to attract investments while blaming Riga’s problems on civil servants.

So, who will win? On the one hand, it is too early to predict, with several months still to go before the elections. On the other hand, the uninspiring current Riga City Council coalition, potential voter fatigue with “New Unity,” which dominates many key positions in the country, and Slesers’ ability to appeal to the public—including the increasingly apathetic Russian-speaking population following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—give Slesers strong prospects.

This is indirectly supported by the latest party ratings: “Latvia First” is already the second most popular party, trailing only the National Alliance. “New Unity,” the previous leader, is now in third place.