In February 2025, the energy systems of the Baltic States will disconnect from Russia's energy system and join the energy system of continental Europe, which is three times bigger than Russia's energy system in terms of power generated. This is the largest energy independence and, at the same time, regional security project in recent decades, which is being jointly being implemented by the Baltic power transmission system operators – Latvian AS Augstsprieguma tīkls (AST), Lithuanian Litgrid and Estonian Elering. As AST Chairman of the Board Rolands Irklis confirms, the Baltics are ready to join the European energy system.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the risks facing the Baltic energy system have increased. In order to mitigate these, the Baltic energy system will disconnect from Russia's unified energy system (the so-called BRELL transmission system) and join the European system almost a year earlier than planned – from 7 to 9 February 2025. Over the past 15 years, the Baltic power transmission system operators have done a great deal of work to ensure that this process is executed successfully, ensuring the stable operation of the energy supply system.
"Synchronisation aims to ensure that we can maintain and control the grid ourselves, ensure stability and so that we are not dependent on the actions of our neighbours. In order to ensure the availability of quality information about the largest independence project in the Baltics, we are organising a range of discussions with cooperation partners and other ministerial agencies in which we are explaining the essence of the synchronisation project. However, in complex geopolitical conditions, it is true that society is more vulnerable, and as the set date for the conclusion of the synchronisation project comes closer, the more we encounter misleading information. Therefore, we urge the public to treat information critically, not to fall foul of any emotionally charged pronouncements, and not to share news that has not been verified. For the latest information, I advise you to refer to the CEM and AST websites and social media profiles,” explains Climate and Energy Minister Kaspars Melnis.
"Just like integration into the European Union and NATO, Latvia's integration into the European energy system is a decisively important and logical next step on the road to complete energy independence. Through close cooperation, the Baltic transmission system operators have succeeded in successfully preparing this major European joint interest project with significant EU co-financing, as a result having no significant impact on the transmission tariff or electricity prices," stresses AST Chairman of the Board Rolands Irklis.
According to the statement from the Baltic States' system operators, the BRELL agreement regarding the functioning of the Baltic energy system within the Russian-controlled IPS/UPS grid will be rendered invalid on 7 February 2025. On 8 February 2025, Baltic operators will disconnect the energy system of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the IPS/UPS grid, terminating the Baltic 21 connection to Russia's energy system. Afterwards, an isolated operational test of the Baltic energy system will be performed. After the completion of the test, on 9 February 2025 the Baltic States' energy system will synchronously connect to continental Europe's energy system – synchronisation will take place along the 400 kV overhead power transmission line from Lithuania to Poland. "Synchronisation" means that within the energy systems of the Baltics and continental Europe, generation rotation frequencies will be balanced, making the operation of the energy system more stable. Consumers will not be able to detect synchronisation reconnections. The reconnection process does entail a heightened risk, but risks are acceptable in special energy system mode. Highly sensitive consumers should take this risk into account during reconnection.
AST Board Member Gatis Junghāns confirms that the inaccessibility of the Finnish-Estonian interconnection ESTLINK-2 will not delay synchronisation and have no impact on power supply in the region. However, in coordination with the European power transmission system operators' grid (ENTSO-E), the Baltic transmission system operators are reviewing the technical implementation, considering the option to organise the isolated operating test at another time post synchronisation.
In order to reduce the impact of synchronisation costs on electricity users, overall a great deal of work has been invested by the operators of all three Baltic States, including securing more than EUR 300 million in EU co-financing to reinforce Latvia's power grid infrastructure, and for the purchase of synchronisation equipment and battery systems that store electricity. Investments in Latvia have reached EUR 483 million in line reconstruction, new facilities and IT system. Most of these investments are covered by European Union (EU) co-financing or congestion management revenue, which has made it possible to reduce the impact on the power transmission tariff. The synchronisation project will not affect electricity tariffs in 2025, because the total costs of AST during the adjustment period until 2025 are already incorporated within the tariff and the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) approved them on 22 May 2023. Infrastructure projects already implemented are included in the tariff calculation currently in force. It is estimated that the overall impact of synchronisation costs on the overall system service tariff period from 2026 will only be about 1%, and just 0.25% on the distribution tariff.
Likewise, according to calculations performed in the Baltic States, the synchronisation project will not have a significant effect on overall electricity charges. It should be emphasised that in order to ensure the stable operation of the Baltic electricity system, balancing reserves are crucial. It is forecast that just like in Estonia and Lithuania, the ultimate impact on electricity bills in Latvia of the cost of the balancing reserves required by the Baltic States for the stable operation of the energy system will be less than 5%.
Synchronisation in itself will have little to no effect on electricity prices, because the main factors affecting prices in the Baltic States are local production, fuel prices, weather conditions and the availability of network infrastructure. These factors remain unchanged throughout the year. It should be stressed that the Baltic electricity market has adapted and can fully subsist with importing electricity from Russia. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Latvia has fully suspended the import and export of electricity from Russia and Belarus, and synchronisation with continental Europe is the final step to achieving the country's independence in the realm of electricity supply.
At present, the energy systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are still operating within the IPS/UPS system, where system frequency is controlled by Russia. Operating synchronously with the energy system of continental Europe will provide the energy systems of the Baltic States with independent and secure system frequency control and increased energy supply security. At the same time, the project will foster the development of Europe's internal energy market, creating new business opportunities. In addition, investments made within the framework of the project in equipment and technologies are one of the prerequisites for the transmission grid to be able to securely connect major sources of renewable energy and to fulfil the objectives of the European Green Deal.
The synchronisation project is in its concluding phase and is being implemented with the support of the European Union.
About AS Augstsprieguma tīkls
AST is Latvia's power transmission system operator, which ensures continuous, secure and sustainably efficient power transmission throughout Latvia. Its vision is to become the region's leading transmission system operator, which implements development-oriented changes efficiently and successfully. AST owns 68.46% of shares in the natural gas transmission and storage system operator AS Conexus Baltic Grid.
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