Substantial changes in Kazakhstan are not expected after recent unrest - political expert

  • 2022-01-12
  • LETA/TBT Staff

RIGA - Judging by the behavior of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, no significant and long-term changes in the country are expected after the unrest in Kazakhstan, political scientist Ojars Skudra told LETA.

The long-term consequences of the unrest could be on the state's administrative and bureaucratic apparatus, as well as on the activities of security services, Skudra emphasizes, adding that the work of Kazakhstan's security services is already being assessed and being "cleaned up".

The withdrawal of Russian forces, if at all, is also an indication that no change is expected in the country. Then these riots can be seen as settling accounts between elite circles, because the country is very rich in many valuable natural resources, says Skudra.

The political scientist says that there is still one uncertainty in the information space, namely where the former President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev is currently located. According to him, it will later be possible to draw conclusions as to whether Nazarbayev himself or his "clan" is involved in the unrest.

Kazakhstan is also generally supported by China, Russia and Turkey, and has large US capital, which indicates that situation may not be advantageous for some and thus need mass unrest or a sharp change of power.

At the same time, Skudra points out that several experts do not consider the unrest to be insignificant and point out that there could be significant changes in the country.