Russians are fully convinced of an attack from the West - US military expert

RIGA - The Russian public is absolutely convinced that sooner or later a Western invasion is imminent, and this belief is deliberately reinforced by the country's propaganda, Colin Smith, an international relations and defense researcher who was once expelled from Moscow where he served as a military attaché, told LETA in an interview.

Smith has felt this Russian conviction in Russia for many years: "In their minds, the question is not if they will invade, but when they will invade. They remember Napoleon and Hitler and have convinced themselves that a Western invasion is only a matter of time."

The narrative that NATO entered the Baltics after the 2004 enlargement and now wants to take over Ukraine or Georgia only reinforces this "paranoid psychosis", he said.

Smith, who has nearly three decades of experience in various US missions around the world, has also been stationed twice to Moscow. He has traveled extensively in Russia and spoken extensively with locals.

"In these conversations it becomes clear that they really believe that the West will invade, because the only way to fulfill the West's goal of destroying Russia and its might is to go to Moscow and conquer it. Of course, this is simply ridiculous. Why should NATO invade Russia at all? There is simply no reason to do so," the expert said.

He pointed out that whether the Russian experts advising Putin and his generals themselves believe it or not, their strategic narrative proclaims that NATO will invade. Russians were also told before the war that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, and the reason for the invasion is that once Ukraine joined NATO it would become a springboard for a Western invasion of Russia and that Ukraine would become another former Soviet state that had become hostile to Russia.

Smith is convinced that Russia's objectives have not changed in the last decade - the Russians will do everything they can to split NATO, to make it look less like an organized alliance. He conceded that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had indeed once allowed for the possibility of getting along with the West, but after seeing "how the West missed its opportunities and abandoned Russia in the 1990s, he said - no, we have to go back to the old Soviet style, regain our greatness".

"This is his way of trying to accomplish this. But the Russians severely underestimated Ukraine's determination, and they also witnessed an opposite reaction in Sweden and Finland. They want NATO to stop expanding, but instead they have persuaded two countries that have been neutral for 70-80 years to join..." the American international relations and defense researcher, who was once stationed also in Riga, told LETA.

Smith's prediction for Russia's future was cautious, as it continues to surprise economists, who argue that the Russian economy should have already collapsed, but it has not. He pointed out, however, that economists talk little about Russia's booming services sector. There was no services sector in Russia before, because it was usually closely linked to money in people's pockets, which they did not have, but now there is - soldiers and their families have money in their pockets. Smith points out that such a services economy has now emerged in Russia, which makes him think of the services-based economy of the US.

He believes that the existence of such a services economy in Russia could make sense at least as long as Russia has a partner like China that will continue to buy Russian products, continue to buy their oil, buy their energy, buy their technology and continue the technological exchange between the two countries.

"How sustainable this cooperation is is another question. One day Russia will have to wake up and realize that China is not their friend either. What will happen to Russia then, I do not know, because it will be completely isolated from the world," said Smith. He also pointed out, however, that Russia does not have much foreign debt, while the US has USD 37 trillion, but "nobody questions our economy".