Russian military has not become weaker - Rinkevics

RIGA - The Russian military has not grown weaker and is completely different from what it was four and a half years ago, President Edgars Rinkevics emphasized Thursday at the opening of the Riga Conference.

He stressed that Russia’s military forces must not be underestimated simply because the war imposes economic costs on the country, and Russian society is increasingly coming to realize what that means.

"Let’s not be misled into thinking that this means a weakening of Russia’s military capabilities. Quite the opposite. We must understand that Russia’s military forces are, in fact, well-developed," said Rinkevics.

Compared to last year, the President sees several positive changes; for example, Ukraine has been able to withstand the pressure, launch counterattacks, and make the Russian public bear some of the costs of the war.

Rinkevics emphasized that there is constant competition in the field of military technology - drone warfare, anti-drone defenses, ballistic missiles, and their interception systems are all evolving. In his view, although Ukraine has made significant progress in this area, similar technological developments are also taking place in Russia.

The President is convinced that Ukrainian society and political leadership have the will to continue the fight; however, Ukraine still needs comprehensive political, moral, and practical support. He explained that this applies to military equipment, ballistic missile interceptors and related systems, as well as anti-drone defense capabilities.

Rinkevics stated that Ukraine also needs financial support so that it can continue the fight and the country can function. The President commended the European Union’s (EU) ability to provide Ukraine with EUR 90 billion in funding, as well as NATO’s PURL initiative. He emphasized that promises alone are not enough and that the agreements reached must also be implemented by providing actual funding.

The President called for continued efforts to increase political and economic pressure on Russia and to agree on stricter sanctions. He acknowledged that the current sanctions regime is complicated, as it contains many exceptions and nuances, and therefore a unified European approach is needed.

Rinkevics emphasized that Latvia’s position on the issue of frozen Russian assets has always been clear: namely, they must be used to support Ukraine. He acknowledged that reaching an agreement among all 27 EU member states on this issue is not easy.

The President stressed that EU member states must jointly shoulder both the responsibility and the costs. In his view, it is unacceptable for one country to bear the full brunt of the pressure exerted by Russia, while other EU member states stand on the sidelines and simply wish good luck to countries that might face Russian pressure.

Turning to regional security, the President emphasized that there is currently no observable concentration of Russian conventional military forces near the borders of the Baltic states or other NATO member states; however, this year’s security situation differs significantly from that of 2021 due to technological advancements.

The President acknowledged that various provocations are possible that could cause worry, but would most likely not reach the threshold for invoking Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, forcing the allies to seek an appropriate response.

Rinkevics mentioned the increasing intensity of unconventional warfare. The President emphasized that the number of cyberattacks and acts of sabotage is increasing and that residents of Latvia and other NATO and EU countries are being involved in such activities. Various espionage activities also continue.

The President noted that a coordinated response can halt Russia’s provocations. He referred to NATO’s Operation Baltic Sentry in connection with incidents involving undersea cables and Operation Eastern Sentry following airspace violations in NATO countries. Rinkevics said that following the measures taken, the number of such incidents has decreased.

He noted that this does not mean similar incidents cannot recur, but the measures taken by the allies have yielded results. The President called for a reevaluation of the use of the term "hybrid war", as it can create a misleading impression among the public regarding the apparent harmlessness of such attacks.

He called on NATO and the EU to seek new solutions for responding to sabotage, cyberattacks, espionage, and other provocations that do not reach the level of a conventional military attack.

The President also addressed defense spending. Rinkevics emphasized that allocating five percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending is necessary to enhance the security of NATO allies and strengthen their defenses. He acknowledged that even five percent of GDP might not be enough.

Rinkevics called for defense planning to take new trends in warfare more fully into account, without neglecting conventional military capabilities.