Russia's offer to Trump for a ceasefire in Ukraine is more like a simulation of a concession - expert

RIGA - Russia has reduced the 30-day ceasefire by tactically conceding on the issue of strikes on energy infrastructure, Armands Astukevics, a researcher at the Center for East European Policy Studies, told LETA, commenting on the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

He explained that this is one of Russia's weaknesses because, at least recently, Ukraine has been able to strike effectively at oil infrastructure on Russian territory. According to the researcher, Russia has been able to play a reverance to the US, showing that it is ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but the performance is far from what the US and Ukraine initially expected, and it is rather seen as a simulation of a concession.

Astukevics pointed out that if Russia and the US reached an agreement not to strike civilian infrastructure, this would be a concession on the Russian side, but no such gestures have followed from Russia. He said that Russia was playing a tactical game, but that an agreement between Ukraine and Russia was needed for the 30-day ceasefire on oil and energy infrastructure to take effect. The researcher allowed that first steps could be formulated after the talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump expected on Wednesday.

"This is Russia's negotiating tactic. Russia sees that time is on its side and small concessions are also in its own interest. Russia is saying in its statements that the long-term solution would be to stop US military support to Ukraine, no military supplies during the ceasefire and no mobilization in Ukraine. These are clear red lines for Ukraine," Astukevics said.

He also pointed out that Ukraine has insisted on security guarantees, but in these political negotiations Russia is trying to weaken Ukraine's position and put pressure on Ukraine with the help of the US. He also noted that the war in Ukraine has been put on the back burner in the talks, as it is also about restoring relations between Russia and the US, lifting sanctions, and global issues where the two leaders could reach an agreement. Astukevics stressed that this is a huge strategic gain for Russia.

"Tactical concessions for Russia, perhaps on less important issues, are an attempt to sustain this conversation, to demonstrate that Russia is a constructive partner, because it sees very well the big strategic goal, which is to try to get the US on its side. If we look at Russia's strategy in terms of waging war, economic issues are very important for Russia," the researcher said.

He concluded that Russia does not want peace in our sense. In Astukevics' view, Russia may be prepared to make some concessions on some issues of active hostilities for a while, but Russia's objectives on Ukraine have not gone anywhere. Russia wants to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence and sees that this can be achieved through political means in the process of negotiations with the US.

"The same stories and questions about some Russian objections to Ukraine's internal policies, such as the defense of the rights of Russian speakers, new elections, are ways Russia can try to get its way without military means. This is important to remember," he said.

He also stressed that Ukraine's position is unenviable, as it too must demonstrate to the US willingness to settle the conflict while at the same time understanding who Russia is and what its goals are. Astukevics admitted that Russia could stop active hostilities for a year or two, but that an agreement such as the one offered by Russia would not ensure long-term peace in the region. In his view, Russia is trying to prevent any way in which Ukraine could strengthen itself and be less vulnerable to pressure from Moscow, both militarily and politically.

He also pointed out that the negotiations are still in their early stages and it will take time to reach a long-term settlement. Russia is also taking advantage of this and is trying to merge negotiations on long-term issues with short-term objectives. Russia is also trying to gain practical benefits from tactical victories in the negotiations. He also agreed that it is difficult to predict at the moment how these talks will move forward.