Russia gained a lot from Trump meeting, but peace has not become closer - expert

RIGA - Symbolically, the Russian regime has gained a lot from the meeting with US President Donald Trump - its leader has sat at the same table with the US and in the long term maintains Russia's goal to be one of the countries that dictate the rules around the world, but peace in Ukraine has not come any closer, Marcis Balodis, a researcher at the Center for East European Policy Studies, told LETA.

"The visit at the invitation of the US president to the US is an unequivocal success for Russia," the expert assessed.

He pointed out that, judging by public statements, Russia was still insisting on its previous objectives in the negotiations on Ukraine, so there was no softening of positions on the Russian side. "I think that to say that we are closer to peace is not really true," Balodis said, adding that at the same time it was not really clear what exactly was discussed in these talks.

Russia is understood to have tried to convince the US that a temporary ceasefire, a freeze on the frontline, is not really useful at the moment, but to move towards a complete cessation of the war, Balodis said.

The researcher noted that one of the proposals that has been made is that Russia would be ready for Ukraine to immediately hand over the entire Donetsk region, including the territories that Russia still does not control, and only after that would negotiations on a freeze of the front, a further ceasefire process start. This is in line with the Russian way of doing things - the other side has to make concessions immediately, while Russia pushes its commitments further into the future and tries to start bargaining with them, Balodis said.

He assessed that, judging by public statements, Russia is still insisting on so-called "Ukrainian security guarantees", which could severely restrict Ukraine's opportunities for NATO membership, for foreign military personnel to be in Ukraine. Therefore, Russia has not significantly changed its position on this either, the expert said.

The researcher pointed out that this is very much in line with Russia's objectives in going to this meeting, namely to antagonize Ukraine and the US, for example, Russia coming up with offers that allow it to position itself as a country that is interested in peace, that is trying to move the peace process forward, but at the same time coming up with offers that Ukraine cannot agree to puts Ukraine in an awkward position vis-à-vis the US.

As the researcher pointed out, the meeting was short in terms of time and it is understood that there was no talk of economic cooperation between the US and Russia. As Balodis explained, one of the people who traveled with the Russian delegation to the talks was Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and it was understood that Russia would use the meeting to develop its bilateral relations with the US, economic cooperation, but given the length of the meeting, this may not have happened at all.

The researcher assessed that it was too early to judge the practical impact of the meeting, as it was not yet clear what was on offer. At the same time, he judged that progress towards a conclusion of the war was still a slow and distant scenario.

Assessing the reasons why Trump did not maintain pressure tactics against Russia during the meeting, Balodis pointed out that Trump is also interested in peace and Russia is relatively successful in trying to "sell" itself as a country that is also interested in peace, so Trump probably has some interest in working with Russia.

From Russia's point of view, Russia has a certain advantage in this situation, Balodis pointed out. Namely, Putin is an essentially irreplaceable president, so he can "play the long game", he does not have to look for short-term gains. The US President, on the other hand, has to think in terms of electoral cycles, he needs "political points at home", which creates an incentive on the US side to try to make peace, the expert explained.

Balodis assessed that to some extent there are ideological similarities between Trump and Putin. "When it comes to politics, they both think in late 19th century terms, that there are a small handful of countries in the world that do as they please and all the others, or most countries, do as they are told," the expert explained, noting that he believes that Trump feels somewhat comfortable with Putin because they share a similar world view, which may mitigate his willingness or ability to pursue a tougher foreign policy towards Russia.

Also, according to the expert, there is not really a consensus in the White House on how to deal with Russia, how to interact with it, how to communicate with it. For example, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is understood to be one of those in favor of a tougher foreign policy towards Russia, while US Vice President JD Vance is said to have a somewhat softer approach.

"So there is not a complete consensus at the level of the US presidential administration - there is a kind of tug-of-war going on, and maybe who is in the best or strongest position in a given situation probably influences what the US foreign policy towards Russia is at that moment," Balodis said.