Analysts: Adamkus all but home free

With less than 10 days remaining before Lithuanians go to the polls on Dec. 22, incumbent Valdas Adamkus has increased his commanding lead in the race for Lithuania's presidency.

"Adamkus is the very clear leader in the campaign – his main rival could be [Parliamentary Chairman] Arturas Paulauskas," said Jurate Novagrockiene, a lecturer at the International Relations and Political Science Institute.

Adamkus' ratings have increased because of the invitation to NATO and the successful visit with U.S. President George Bush, she explained.

On the same day, voters will also select local leaders. In all, 1,560 municipal council seats in 60 districts will be up for grabs.

According to a recent poll conducted by Baltic Surveys, 33.5 percent of the respondents would vote for Adamkus, 11.8 percent for Paulauskas and 9.5 percent for former chairman and current Liberal Democrat leader Rolandas Paksas.

The 14 other presidential candidates carried 6 percent of support or less.

To win the presidency, a candidate must win over 50 percent of the votes. If not, a run off is required. In this case, such a second round would be held on Jan. 9.

"Adamkus is the leader today - a lone wolf - with 20 points between him and Paulauskas, but it was the same five years ago," said Alvidas Lukosaitis, also a lecturer at Vilnius University's International Relations Institute.

In 1997, the contest between Adamkus and Paulauskas went to a second round of voting, where Adamkus narrowly prevailed by less than one percentage point. This year, likely scenarios include Adamkus winning outright, or a repeat of 1997 with another runoff against Paulauskas.

Alexsandras Matonis of Baltic News Service said that the 15 percent to 20 percent that make up the undecided voters might end the race in the first round if they side with Adamkus.

Novagrockiene said that Adamkus had advantages in addition to recent foreign policy successes. She said he benefited by not having party affiliations and therefore comes across as representing the entire population and is able to stay above the fray of politics.

Also, as a former émigré, he is viewed as having the sole political aim of helping the state and people - not having private or group interests motivating him to seek office.

Despite the lack of excitement surrounding the competition for Lithuania's top spot, Lukosaitis said that about 70 percent of the population claim that they will vote in the presidential elections, which usually inspires greater voter participation than parliamentary and local contests.

Lukosaitis estimated that the turnout woul total between 65-70 percent compared with 75 percent in 1992 and 71 percent during the last presidential election in 1997.

Municipal elections only at-tract 45 percent of eligible voters.

Originally, municipal elections were scheduled for 2003, but the Seimas (Lithuania's Parliament) passed a resolution to hold local elections on the same day as the presidential decision.

This change "could work positively and turnout could be higher," said Novagrockiene. "But, local elections may have an opposite effect because they are less popular. We'll see how they will influence each other."

Lukosaitis said that more liberal candidates would likely do best in Klaipeda and Vilnius. Social democrats have their base of support in smaller towns and villages, while Polish-friendly candidates do best in the outskirts of the Vilnius region and around southern communities like Salcininkai.

Kaunas and the surrounding region tend to support more right-leaning conservative candidates.

In the local elections, Lukasaitis said his prognosis was that the overall winner would be Social Democrats. Their victories could stem from combining two parties into one Social Democrat Party, giving them a stronger organization and larger pool of supporters, said the analyst.

The elections have not been devoid of controversy. Last week, the National Election Committee dismissed 80 local candidates for not disclosing criminal records.

Novagrockiene said the action could further lower the level of trust the public holds for politicians.

In the presidential race, Lithuanian Christian Democrat leader Kazys Bobelis has lost credibility and support over a dispute over the legality of his citizenship. Bobelis has said he refused his American citizenship a decade ago, but his recent row with the election committee has caused a drop in his electorate's trust and public opinion, said Matonis

Liberal Democrat leader Rolandas Paksas first came under fire in the media for sending out Christmas greetings to local parish priests and asking them to pass along his holiday message to parishioners.

This event came after another scandal in which Paksas allegedly accepted a 1 million lit donation from the Avia-Baltica company.

Among the 17 candidates vying for the presidency there are two brothers, an Australian-Lithuanian, a controversial former mayor of Kaunas, and even a television star.

Vytautas Serenas hosts a nightly political satire show, "Dviracio Zynios" (Bicycle News) that usually pokes fun of the candidates, of which he is now one.

The comedic actor has a doctoral degree in economics as well as about 4 percent of the public support, more than a number of "serious" candidates.

"He is somebody different and it's interesting - people like him as a candidate," said Novagrockiene.