After years of hesitating in the face of European Union demands, Lithuania appears to have reconciled itself to the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant.
Now, it has to figure out what to do with the town that grew up around it. The majority of residents in Visaginas, a nearby town, are workers at the plant. Most of them are ethnic Russians. And nobody knows what they will do when Ignalina closes down for good.
The plant houses two Soviet-build RBMK reactors, the same design as those that famously failed at Chernobyl in 1986.
Under EU pressure, Lithuania committed to closing the plant by 2009 and has appeared to back off ideas of replacing it with a new, modern reactor financed with EU funds.
A study by the Social Democrat-led government of Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas released a plan that outlines the possible effects of closure on the local community.
Experts who worked on the study illustrated three possible scenarios for Visaginas, in northeastern Lithuania close to the Latvian and Belarusian borders, following closure.
The first revolved around the possible further development of the plant.
The second called for the gradual dismantling of the town itself, and the third envisioned the unregulated dispersal of residents and local business once the Ignalina plant closes.
The vision of a functioning and developing town, named "Regeneration" in the report, is based on expected construction of new nuclear and thermal plants, renovation of the second reactor at the nuclear plant and aid for developing small businesses. The authors had called this scenario the most likely and least socially costly.
Under the second scenario called "Green Lawn," Visaginas would lose its highly skilled nuclear personnel. The town and surrounding villages would gradually vanish.
The third option, "Ghost Town," could become a reality if the government and international organizations don't make an effort to solve economic and social issues beyond paying severance pay to personnel dismissed from the plant.
The study found this would lead to rampant unemployment of more than 40 percent, increased drug and alcohol abuse, higher crime and the total disappearance of Visaginas.
Kazimira Prunskiene, a former prime minister and head of the New Democratic Party, told The Baltic Times that discussions about building a new nuclear power plant were still being held. "Lithuania has undertaken clear obligations: to shut down the first reactor in 2005 and the second in 2009. Meanwhile the European Union's obligations in this remain undefined," she said.
Prunskiene believes the EU could finance 50 percent of the costs of building a new, safer nuclear facility and said equipment slated for mothballing at Ignalina was still in perfect operation and could be used to lower the costs of building a new plant.
Without a new plant, she said, the region has virtually no prospects for foreign investment.
"I think there are smart people in the European Union, and they understand that Lithuania is being asked to sacrifice a clean, safe source of energy, providing jobs for the entire region, in order for some people to feel more secure," Prunskiene said, adding it would cost Lithuania around 3.2 billion euros just for refitting existing power generation facilities to meet domestic demand after Ignalina closes.
A survey conducted in Visaginas in 1999 showed that after plant closure, 48 percent of residents said they planned to stay, 21 percent would try to move elsewhere in Lithuania and 26 percent planned to emigrate. The authors estimate that at least 2,000 people would leave.
Many of the workers at Ignalina are technicians who would be left without a trade, although there are also some highly qualified nuclear specialists involved in Ignalina's operation.
Security at the plant was stepped up following last year's Sept. 11 terror attacks in the United States and police continue to investigate theft of uranium from Ignalina between 1992 and 1994.
Ignalina is more powerful than Chernobyl, producing 1,500 megawatts to Chernobyl's 1,000 megawatts.
It was designed to meet the power needs of industry and consumers throughout the western Soviet Union. The first reactor went online in 1983 and the second in 1987.
Four reactors were initially planned but construction of the third was halted in 1989 in the face of massive protests.
The reactors currently operating at Ignalina have a design lifetime - or term for safe operation - until about 2010.
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