Adamkus will run again

After months of silence, President Valdas Adamkus finally came clean on his future last week by announcing he would seek a second term in office.

Two days later, Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas, the man Adamkus succeeded as president five years ago, said he would not attempt to recapture the country's top job when Lithuanians head to the polls Dec. 22.

Adamkus waited longer than expected to declare his candidacy, and many began to think the 75-year-old former U.S. citizen might be too tired to stand for another term.

But Adamkus put those rumors to rest Sept. 5, declaring he had "enough strength and experience that may be useful to our state at this period of great historic responsibility."

Not running, he said, would "be a disappointment to many electors and would decrease the possibilities to choose."

Adamkus consistently ranks among the most popular politicians in Lithuania, and his advisers say he feels obligated to steer the country into NATO and the European Union.

Brazauskas served as president from 1993-1998 but did not run for re-election, saying his past as leader of Lithuania's Communist Party could damage the country's image.

But he made a surprise return to national politics in 2000, becoming prime minister. He said he would rather focus on those duties than throw his hat into the presidential ring again. It was time for "the new generation to come to the presidential post," an apparent endorsement of Adamkus' challengers, all of whom are younger than the incumbent.

"I think the situation is playing out as expected – most of the public and political observers expected Adamkus to participate," said Vilnius-based political scientist Jurate Novagrockiene. "The same can be said about Brazauskas, the strongest candidate from the left. It wasn't a surprise that he declined to run."

With Brazauskas opting out, his Social Democrat Party nominated its vice chairman, Vytenis Andriukaitis. He joins right-leaning Christian Democrat Kazys Bobelis, Liberal Eugenijus Gentvilas, a former economy minister, and former Prime Minister Rolandas Paksas. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off will be held Jan. 9.

The final piece left out of the presidential campaign puzzle is whether or not the New Union (Liberal Democrats) will nominate party leader and Parliament Speaker Arturas Paulauskas.

The party is expected to decide at a meeting on Sept. 15.

Political observers say that Paulauskas' role in the elections will be an important one.

"If he runs, the center left voters could be split between him and Andriukaitis, and if he abstains, the social democratic candidate would be expected to receive more votes," said Mindaugas Jurkinas, a lecturer at the International Relations and Political Science Institute.

"If Paulauskas decides to enter the campaign, it is possible that he would be the main rival of Adamkus since he is the strongest candidate from the left – and Lithuania's left has a traditionally strong electorate," said Novagrockiene, who said a decision by Paulauskas not to run could tip the scales in Adamkus' favor.

Jurkinas said Paulauskas' New Union was "a bit trapped." By refusing to field a candidate they could lose face with voters and appear as the "younger brother" to their coalition partners, the Social Democrats.

And with local elections being held on the same day, it is crucial for a favorable "personality" to be on the presidential ticket in order to boost chances for success in races across the country.

Former Prime Minster Andrius Kubilius recently withdrew from the presidential race to avoid the possibility of splitting center right voters who might otherwise favor Adamkus.

Kubilius, a conservative, is also unpopular for presiding over the sale of the Mazeikiu Nafta refinery to the U.S. energy firm Williams.

The deal was criticized as detrimental to Lithuania, and mounting losses that resulted in Williams selling out its stake in the refinery to Russia's Yukos seemed to confirm those doubts among many voters.

Adamkus was also strongly in favor of the initial Williams deal in 1999, but his popularity has not wavered, and as president has managed to stay above the fray.

"Adamkus is an attractive and popular leader and has the ability to attract voters from both sides of the political spectrum," said Novagrockiene. "He has no real affiliations from any party and this is his trump card."

Before returning to his native Lithuania in the early 1990s, Adamkus was a regional administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in Chicago.

As president, he has spearheaded the campaign to join NATO and the EU. Lithuania and Baltic neighbors Latvia and Estonia are hoping to win invitations to the military alliance at its Prague summit in November.

The three countries hope to join the EU in 2004.