Presidential election campaign to kick off

The race is about to begin. Lithuania's Parliament has approved a draft resolution proposing that presidential elections be held on Dec. 22.

The campaign has already begun unofficially, although the probable leading candidates have yet to clearly state their intentions.

Kazys Bobelis, Christian Democrat leader and one of the leading candidates, complained that voters would be more interested in Christmas shopping on Dec. 22.

But Lithuania's constitution states that a presidential election should be held on the Sunday two months before the expiration of the five-year term of the current president, meaning that the election has to be on either Dec. 22 or Dec. 29.

So far the opposition Homeland Union (Lithuanian Conservatives) has nominated the party's first deputy chairman, former Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, as its candidate. The opposition Lithuanian Liberal Union has nominated former Economy Minister Eugenijus Gentvilas, the Lithuanian Christian Democrats have put forward their party's chairman, Kazys Bobelis, and the Farmers' and New Democracy Union has nominated its chairwoman, Kazimiera Prunskiene.

Minor parties are also getting ready, with the National Democratic Party, known for being sympathetic to France's Jean-Marie Le Pen, nominating Kazimieras Uoka as its candidate. Uoka currently has a zero rating in the popularity charts.

The Center Union is expected to nominate its leader Kestutis Glaveckas and the Liberal Democratic Party to nominate its leader Rolandas Paksas shortly.

Keeping their hands hidden are political heavyweights President Adamkus, Social Democrat leader and Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas, and Social Liberal leader and Parliament Chairman Arturas Paulauskas. None has officially announced his candidacy.

All surveys show that Adamkus, Brazauskas, Bobelis and Paulauskas are far ahead of the others in the popularity charts.

Following a routine meeting between Adamkus and Brazauskas on May 29, Brazauskas said he would not announce his decision on whether to stand until the Social Democrats' congress on Sept. 7.

"I haven't decided anything, and I won't decide till the first Saturday of September," said Brazauskas.

Adamkus meanwhile "will make his decision either in September, or in October," said his adviser Darius Kuolys.

There is little doubt that Adamkus will stand for a second term despite signs of deteriorating health last year. The clearest signal is his absolute criticism of every step taken by the Social Democrat-Social Liberal government and the corresponding coalition in Parliament. Only when it comes to foreign policy does Adamkus spare the government.

In particular Adamkus' loud "No way!" to the European Union's demand that Lithuania close its nuclear power plant at Ignalina can be seen as a populist pre-election stand. He has since climbed down from that position but only via his advisers, who are likely to have had less impact on the public.

Brazauskas' plans are a mystery. His popularity has suffered significantly following his recent second marriage, but he has seemed unconcerned, honeymooning in Egypt and Paris while his ex-wife accused him of immorality in the media. He has also refrained from criticizing Adamkus or the parliamentary opposition since becoming prime minister, all of which suggests a lack of ambition to become president for a second time.

Nonetheless the Lithuanian media are speculating that Brazauskas' wealthy new wife Kristina may have her eyes on the role of first lady, while the Social Democrats, lacking a credible alternative to Brazauskas, are also pushing him to stand.Brazauskas' stated reason for not standing for a second term in 1998 was his desire to set his personal life in order.

Assuming one of the top candidates wins it makes little difference which, particularly when it comes to foreign policy, say analysts.

"The candidates' personal character and their family life will be the main things which will influence the electorate's choice. I'm afraid the main factor will be the number of free glasses of beer the candidates give out to people at the very end of the election campaign," said political analyst Vytautas Radzvilas.

Although Lithuania plans to wrap up accession talks with the EU this year and is expected to receive an invitation to join NATO in November, the two issues will have little influence on the presidential election, as voters are more interest in internal issues than in foreign affairs, said Radzvilas.