President lobbies for Irish "yes"

On her week-long trip to Ireland this week, Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga was expected to meet with Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern to discuss, among other topics, Ireland's referendum on European Union enlargement.

Ireland voted last June against ratification of the Nice Treaty, which allows, among other things, for the expansion of the European Union to up to 12 more countries, including the Baltics. For any EU treaty to take effect, though, it has to be ratified by all 15 member states.

So far the treaty, which is named after the French city where it was signed in 2000, has been ratified by 12 of the 15 EU member states - with Greece and Belgium expected to ratify it soon.

Unlike other EU member states, the Irish constitution requires that any international treaty must be put to vote before the people. Last June 54 percent of those who voted in the first referendum cast a nay.

Observers expect a second referendum to be held before year's end, but no earlier than this fall.

"One thing is sure. If there is a second 'no,' enlargement is in trouble," Jean-Christophe Filori, spokesman for EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheu-gen, told reporters in Brussels. "Enlargement may suffer a serious delay. It is as simple as that."

Since being invited to join the EU in 1998 and 1999, all three Baltic countries have been working to conform to EU standards. But unless Ireland's voters have a change of heart in the next referendum, there could be a lengthy delay before the three countries are formally admitted.

"If there is another 'no,' then we are heading into unknown territory," said the head of the European Commission's delegation for Latvia Andrew Rasbash. "People will have to go and figure out the next step."

Latvia's Foreign Minister Indulis Berzins also realizes the gravity of the situation.

"The upcoming referendum in Ireland is of course cause for concern," said Berzins. "Last time I met with the Irish prime minister, he promised that the political elite in Ireland would do everything possible to make the outcome of the upcoming referendum a positive one for EU expansion."

Michael Bourke, Ireland's honorary consul to Latvia, is cautiously optimistic about the second referendum.

"There was an extremely low turnout in the first referendum and often in cases like that you get very hard opinions coming out," he said. "The no vote took the political parties in power largely by surprise. It was a kick in the face for them."

Indeed, voter turnout in the first referendum was a paltry 32.9 percent of the country's 2.9 million registered voters - one of the lowest turnouts in Irish history.

A public opinion poll for the Irish Times newspaper taken just before the recent Irish parliamentary elections, though, found that the prospects for getting the referendum passed on its second try might be worse rather than better.

The poll found that support for the Nice Treaty had fallen since the start of the year. Thirty-two percent of respondents said that they would vote "yes," down 8 percent from January, while another 32 percent said they would vote "no," up 3 percent.

The Irish Times wrote that there had been a shift away from pro-EU sentiment since January and that the new government in Dublin would face "a major task in persuading the electorate to vote 'yes.'"

"I think there may now be a drop in support for EU enlargement from where it was last year when the people voted in the first referendum," said Bourke. "People are concerned about their jobs and the future because of the downturn in the economy; concerned about the potential problems that a wave of workers from Eastern and Central Europe would create. People vote with their pocketbooks."

The treaty's opponents in Ireland say that ratifying the treaty would cause Ireland to lose generous EU subsidies to the newly-admitted, poorer candidate countries.

They also argue that ratifying the treaty would force Ireland to participate in the EU's Rapid Reaction Force, thus infringing on the country's traditional neutrality.

The Nice Treaty also alters the EU's decision-making procedures, reducing the scope of national vetoes, and increasing the range of questions decided by qualified majority voting.