Reform and Center parties to unite in coalition

TALLINN - The leaders of the Reform Party and the Center Party are due to start discussing who gets what in Estonia's new Cabinet on Jan. 18. The parties have already held talks dedicated to future partnership this week.

Edgar Savisaar, Center Party chairman and Tallinn's new mayor, has made it clear that his preferred vision of a new coalition includes partnership with the Reformists and the People's Union. The Reform Party, Center Party and People's Union have 18, 29 and 11 seats in Estonia's 101-seat Parliament, respectively.

Siim Kallas, finance minister and Reform Party leader, declined that the People's Union is not ready to take on the responsibility of being a coalition partner because it has little experience of being one. The People's Union, a party with wide support in rural areas and among older people, has spent the last few years in opposition.

"As for extraordinary elections, they would cost Estonia too much, and hamper all the legislative processes for six months - including those related to EU and NATO accession," explained Kallas.

Elections are the only alternative to a coalition being formed.

Dangerous

Some prominent Pro Patria Union members warn a Center/Reform coalition might threaten Estonia's national security due to the Centrists' views on citizenship and language.

The Center Party have often suggested that Russian be made a second official language in the north-east of the country, which is populated mostly by Russian-speakers.

"We'll definitely support Kallas as a candidate for the post of prime minister, but not someone from the Center Party," said Tiit Sinisaar, head of Pro Patria's parliamentary faction.

The Moderates, one of the key players of Mart Laar's falling coalition, are keen to continue working for the benefit of the country. "Cooperation between the Moderates and the Center Party and People's Union regarding employment, education and social issues is possible and necessary," said Olari Koppel, the Moderates' media coordinator, this week.

The Moderates are ready, however, for fresh parliamentary elections.

Bunch of socialists

Regional branches of the Reform Party suggest that cooperation with the Centrists should continue rather than allow the party to go into opposition. A Center Party/People's Union minority coalition would, they say, make a government that is too far to the left.

Leino Magi, chair of the Harjumaa branch of the Reform Party, stated on Jan. 11 that he saw no reason to avoid partnership with the Centrists. "I do not consider the Center Party a tougher nut to crack than the Moderates. They're all the same socialists," he added.

The government crisis in Estonia quickly made it to international headlines, drawing the attention of higher European officials. Gunter Verheugen, the EU's enlargement commissioner, said he hoped the new government, whatever will it be, will carry on its EU accession preparations.

Meeting with Verheugen in Brussels last week, outgoing Estonian foreign minister Toomas Hendrik Ilves assured him that Estonia's foreign policy is not a subject to change.

Political researchers say anything is possible. Pami Aalto, a research fellow at the University of Tampere, Finland, told The Baltic Times that theoretically a new government of the Reform and Center parties might well affect Estonia's EU and NATO progress.

"It is very much notable that the Center Party, and especially Mr. Savisaar, is now becoming eligible for government after an exile of several years. Savisaar writes in his 1999 book 'Usun Eestisse' (I Believe in Estonia) in a very skeptical tone about his country's EU and NATO bids," said Aalto.

"And we know that there are some high-profile euroskeptics in the Reform Party as well," he added.

"However, in practice I still tend to think that these membership processes are now so well advanced that it will be difficult for any political party to try and halt them."

Aalto said he believes EU and NATO membership will still be pushed through using the national security argument, basically claiming that it is necessary for Estonia to survive as a state.

"In all likelihood, there will be enough top politicians pressing the case and getting the public behind their security argument," Aalto said.

Limelight

Past experience shows majority governments in Estonia can be just as unstable as minority governments. So elections would not have much effect, according to Aalto.

He said that a significant part of the population, the Center Party's voters, will now find themselves represented in government after a lengthy absence, although they have been the largest single electoral group since the last elections. The policies preferred by these people - about a quarter of all voters - will now get a chance for action.

Juhan Kivirahk, an Estonian sociologist working for ES Turu-uuringute AS, a market research company, told Baltic News Service last week that the political awareness of Estonian residents has grown in recent years. As a result, the country is becoming more partisan.

He pointed out that more and more people in the country can identify themselves with one political party or another. In December 2001, 43 percent could do so. Six years ago only 25 percent said their views were represented by a party.