Election and a possible invitation make this a big year

VILNIUS - This is a big year for Lithuania. The final stages of preparing for NATO and European Union membership will be worked through, with a crucial announcement coming in November, and there will be a presidential election. There could also be an unwanted visitor.

One of the most pressing matters for this coming year is the completion of all 31 EU accession chapters. Lithuania is among the leaders of the 10 candidate countries in getting chapters completed, and it looks likely that all will be concluded by the end of the year, paving the way for EU entry in 2004.

According to Klaudijus Maniokas, Lithuania's deputy negotiator, the country is on track. The process is now under the directive of Spain, which has just taken over the EU presidency for six months.

"In the first six months of 2002 we should finish six more chapters. We'll tackle financial issues in the second half of the year. Right now we're just following the road map we laid out for ourselves," said Maniokas.

The next meeting for negotiations is scheduled for the end of February.

Support for EU membership in Lithuania remains steady. Around 50 percent would be in favor of membership in a nationwide referendum - a similar result to surveys taken in member states. About 20 percent would vote against.

Hello, euro

Lithuanian residents and businesses are preparing for the repegging of the litas to the euro on Feb. 2, after more than seven years of a fixed litas-dollar rate.

The change of peg is a logical part of the political and economic integration with the European Union, officials say. It is also preparation for the day, several years away, when Lithuania could eventually adopt the euro as its national currency.

The Bank of Lithuania predicts a smooth shift to the euro peg. All related decisions have been made, except for the very last: setting a precise litas-euro fixed exchange rate. The central bank is committed to set the new litas-euro rate on Feb. 1, without devaluing or revaluing, based on exchange rates announced that afternoon by the European Central Bank.

Repegging to the euro comes after years of discussion and months of direct preparation, including legal amendments, government and central bank decrees, and consultation with bodies like the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements.

The Mazeikiu Nafta oil complex, Lithuania's biggest company, hopes this year to at long last reach agreement with one or more Russian oil companies that will ensure long-term crude supplies and so open the way to financing for a much-needed push for modernization.

The U.S. energy company Williams International, 33-percent owner and operator of Mazeikiu Nafta, is expected to resume talks in January with Russian oil giant Yukos.

On Dec. 11, Williams called off negotiations with Yukos on a major shares-for-crude deal, saying talks had reached an impasse. Yukos later said it was ready to renew the negotiations if the U.S. company replaced its chief negotiator, a condition that Williams has refused.

Meanwhile, Williams faces the daunting task of making peace with the Lithuanian government and improving its image in the eyes of the Lithuanian public.

Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas has repeatedly criticized the U.S. investor for poor management resulting in huge and growing losses at Mazeikiu Nafta, and for making "pretentious demands" about implementation of the controversial privatization deal in which it bought into the Lithuanian refiner in the fall of 1999.

The big race

Preparations are well under way, at least among Lithuania's political elite, for presidential elections due to take place at the end of 2002, the third since Lithuania regained independence a decade ago.

The Christian Democrats have put their popular leader Kazys Bobelis forward as a candidate, the Conservatives have chosen former prime minister Andrius Kubilius, and Kazimiera Prunskiene, another former prime minister who now heads the Peasants and New Democracy Union, has said she intends to run.

There is a long and growing list of other potential party-backed candidates and independents. However, most eyes are riveted on current President Valdas Adamkus, whose five-year term expires Feb. 26, 2003, and on Brazauskas, who was president for most of the 1990s.

Both have said they would not announce before the summer whether they will campaign for a new term as head of state.

To win the elections in the first round, a candidate will need an absolute majority of votes. Otherwise, the two candidates with the highest number of votes go on to a second and final round.

Besides the power of signing laws into force, the Lithuanian constitution gives the president responsibility for defining the nation's top foreign policy goals.

A majority of Lithuanians are hoping that the 2002 NATO summit in Prague this November will see the extension of an invitation for the country to enter the 19-nation defense organization.

According to Alvydas Medalinskas, a Liberal MP and member of the foreign affairs committee, all the necessary steps have been taken to ensure an invitation.

"We have devoted all the necessary money and have undergone substantial military reform. We have good relations with our neighbors, and there is public support. There are all the necessary prerequisites (for NATO entry)," said an optimistic Medalinskas.

In a survey conducted by the Vilmorus pollsters in November and December 2001, 64.6 percent of the country supports entry into NATO while around 20 percent find it unnecessary.

But there has been plenty of opposition from Lithuania's neighbor to the east. Russia has always voiced its concern and general opposition to the expansion of NATO to its immediate western border. Yevgenyi Primakov, a former Russian prime minister, expressed this view on Lithuanian national television during a recent visit to Vilnius.

It is a view held by most Russian politicians, many of whom still believe in Cold War tactics. But President Vladimir Putin has eased his own rhetoric by conceding that it is up to each individual country to decide its terms with NATO.

Guest of dishonor

The author of the controversial best-selling novel "The Corrections" says he may plan a trip to the Lithuanian capital in October. Despite Jonathan Franzen's portrayal of Vilnius as a corrupt and hellish cesspool of human existence, he has shown some interest in visiting the city for the first time.

Many Lithuanians seem unfazed by the whole brouhaha, but those of Lithuanian descent abroad have been up in arms.

One can only hope Franzen won't have to endure some of the hardships described in his book. What a terrible tragedy it would be if he had to resort to eating horse meat and was killed in a drive-by shooting in the freezing rain.