Terrorist attacks could affect NATO expansion

  • 2001-09-20
  • J. Michael Lyons
RIGA - Government officials in the Baltic states believe NATO enlargement will proceed next year, saying the alliance's new focus on aiding a U.S. response to last week's terrorist attacks should strengthen arguments for expansion.

NATO's attention will likely be consumed by the planned U.S. offensive following the alliance's decision last week to rally round the United States by declaring that an attack on one member was an attack on all.

Speculation has already begun here on what that might mean for NATO's expansion plans, which are expected to be a key issue at the alliance's summit next fall in Prague.

"What better way to convey the message of solidarity among democratic countries than enlarging NATO?" said Guntars Krasts, a former Latvian prime minister and a member of the Parliament's foreign relations committee.

That's the way most government officials in the Baltic states see it - NATO enlargement will help shore up Eastern Europe, seen by some around the world as a security gray area.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania pressed ahead with their cases to join NATO this week.

Latvia on Sept. 17 unveiled its latest progress report on membership preparation, which includes a 30 percent increase in defense spending next year to 89.97 million lats ($145 million) and plans to more than double its defense budget by 2008.

NATO officials were also scheduled to present a review of Lithuania's military structure this week. Washington is obviously not concerned with enlargement now, Baltic officials concede, but they believe it will surely revisit the issue before the Prague summit.

"We are right now in the midst of a crisis that has naturally shifted NATO enlargement away from the center of attention," Estonian Foreign Minister Toomas Ilves said in an interview with Radio Free Europe last week. "But the process, which is governed by a clear logic of its own, will not come to a halt now."

Latvia's Defense Minister Girts Kristovskis clarified the situation even further.

"I have personally received information that all plans are continuing," he told journalists.

But another factor under discussion in Foreign ministries in all three countries is what Russia's burgeoning relationship with the United States in the wake of the attacks might mean for NATO enlargement.

Though Russia is lukewarm about allowing U.S. troops into the former Soviet republics that border Afghanistan, it has cast its support in principal to a U.S. response.

The attacks may even prompt the United States to capitulate on the war in Chechnya, with evidence suggesting terrorist leader Osama bin Laden has advised Chechen rebels. This has left two possible scenarios for NATO enlargement floating around the Baltic republics' Foreign ministries, according to an official in Latvia's Foreign Ministry.

If Russian support continues, and even goes as far as hosting limited U.S. troops, NATO may at least temporarily abandon thoughts of expanding into the Baltics as part of the deal.

Officials believe a second possibility might be that Russia, which has spent many of the last 10 years fighting in Chechnya what it has called terrorists, will see the value of NATO and what will now be its primary focus - fighting terrorism, not hemming in Russia.

Some officials even believe that discussion of Russia some day joining NATO might even gain steam.

Latvian Foreign Minister Indulis Berzins welcomed a Russia friendlier with NATO.

"I really think it is a great advantage if Russia is involved," he said.