No big deal awaits Lithuania

MP Gediminas Vagnorius, head of the Moderate Conservative Union, has twice been prime minister of right-wing governments. An expert in Lithuanian politics and economics and obviously well experienced in both fields, he knows the root mechanics of Lithuania's government. He also has the enviable record as Lithuania's longest serving prime minister, from November 1996 to April 1999. The Baltic Times. asked him what he thought the future holds for Algirdas Brazauskas' new government. Interview by Virgilijus Savickas.

The Baltic Times: What was the legacy of the leftist Lithuanian Democratic Labor Party (LDDP) government you found after the general election in 1996 when you came in as a prime minister of the Conservative government for the second time?

Gediminas Vagnorius: The years 1993 to 1995 were hard ones for the country. At that time unemployment increased while the income of the population was decreasing. The country rolled into a banking crisis. State debts were accumulated. Until 1990 there were none. It was a period of unsuccessful government. Responsibility lies within the then LDDP (now merged with the Social Democrats).

TBT: Would you consider this government competent to stick to the professional management of state affairs as the Social Democrats stress it?

Vagnorius: I would like to see the sound government of the state, but I don't expect any important changes from Algirdas Brazauskas' newly formed government in comparison with his politics before. I don't think that the Social Democrats have been preparing for government seriously enough or have a solid team for governmental work. In the sense of public information - propaganda - the party is qualified for the job. But in businesslike matters, in the domain of social, economic and financial reforms, this party has neither specialists nor professionals it can relay on. And that's regrettable.

TBT: It's now being said that politics can rest on a "socially oriented market." What is it?

Vagnorius: What Algirdas Brazauskas recently spoke of in Parliament I believe is an abstract, unspecific and rather propagandist speech. It was not even very logical. It was the kind of speech presented at celebrations, with a lot of attention given to abstract considerations like how nice life would be if there were higher wages and pensions and fewer unemployed.

To talk about the reduction of unemployment and at the same time adhere to social democratic policies is a contradiction. Redistribution itself does not create jobs or stimulate the economy.

I welcome Brazauskas' assurances in public to continue the course of Euro-Atlantic integration and ensure the continuation of foreign policy. This is good for the state.

TBT: Should we take Brazauskas' assurances to continue Euro-Atlantic integration for granted?

Vagnorius: Lithuania will maintain the continuation of its foreign policy although in some cases the pace of reforms may slow down. Probably Euro-Atlantic integration would be more successful if we had a center-right government.

TBT: Social Democrats used to say they would improve economic relations with Russia. Are there grounds for doing that?

Vagnorius: I take it as a political statement with nothing in common with reality. They talked the same talk back in 1992. In fact, for objective reasons these relations worsened. I don't believe you can persuade Lithuanian businessmen to trade in either the east or the west. All this is determined by prices and investment possibilities. It certainly doesn't seem at the moment that the trade volume with Russia or any other Eastern European state is about to increase.

TBT: Will Brazauskas' government raise any threats for Western investment in Lithuania or on its way to NATO?

Vagnorius: A leftist government will not, of course, improve the psychological climate in foreign relations, but I don't think it is about to suspend Euro-Atlantic integration or block investment in the Lithuanian economy. It may have an impact on the pace. Foreign investors may ask for more financial or legal guarantees. I do believe that there are already strong business traditions in Lithuania. Most Lithuanians understand that integration into the European Union and NATO will bring tremendous benefit to the country. I don't think the new government will be steering in the opposite direction.

TBT: In one of your statements you urged President Adamkus to form a stable government. How long will it hold out this time?

Vagnorius: I'm not a Brazaus-kas supporter by any stretch of the imagination. But it does mean that the current political crisis should stop deepening. This is why we have to honor our traditions of democracy and give a chance to a real majority in the Parliament to form their government and try out their program. As a man of political experience I know the new government's job will not be easy. Within about a year it will encounter some serious social and economic problems. But it has good prospects to do its job at least until the next presidential elections due at the end of 2002.