Great expectations for 2001

TALLINN - Now that the New Year's party is nearly forgotten, it's time to make
predictions for the coming political and economic year. The Baltic
Times asked some specialists to share their opinions.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expects a full year carrying out
political lobbying in all the capitals of the world, especially among
the new administration in the United States and the U.S. Congress,
said Harri Tiido, a high official at the ministry.

"Estonian foreign policy has two basic directions in the year 2001,
namely preparing for NATO and EU membership," he said.

"The presidency of Sweden is very advantageous for Estonia because
Sweden supports EU enlargement and has positive relations with
Estonia," said Tiido.

Taavi Toom, spokesperson for the ministry, said Estonia hopes to
close several chapters in EU admission talks during the first half of
this year, including financial (guarantee of deposits) and transport
issues.

"We also plan to make Estonian environmental legislation EU-friendly
in the next six months. Agricultural issues still remain the most
difficult ones," said Toom.

Experts from the Estonian Institute of Economic Research predict a
continuation of the economic growth the country has seen in the last
five months but pointed out some problems currently present in the
economy.

The institute's Leev Kuum said growth has been generated thanks to exports.

Things the state could improve, according to Kuum, include the
Estonian labor market (it has not positively changed at all despite
the economic growth) and the structure of exports (most Estonian
exporters are subcontractors).

"The government could arrange state programs for requalification and
additional studies to improve professional skills," said Kuum.

Kuum also said loans taken in 2000 grew 40 percent compared to 1999.

"That brings additional instability into the economic system," he said.

The institute worked out the Estonian economic rating according to
European methods in order to generalize on several economic
indicators. The rating of the Estonian economy at of the end of
December 2000 was 7.5 points out of 10.

The Consumer Price Index could exceed 5 percent, according to the
institute. The Bank of Estonia forecasts the same results.

Lennart Meri, who has been serving for many years as president, will
have to prove during the presidential election campaign this spring
that Parliament made the right choice in 1996 when it chose him.
Major political parties have already chosen their candidates. The
current parliamentary speaker, Toomas Savi of the Reform Party, is
now rated as the most promising candidate by the Estonian media.

One woman candidate, Siiri Oviir from the Center Party, is also
expected to run.

The Moderates, meanwhile, are pushing for their chairman, Andres Tarand.