Baltics under nuclear threat from Russia?

RIGA - The new millennium has started with what, at least on the surface,
seems to be an attempt by Russia to restart the Cold War. Following
reports in the U.S. media accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin
of redeploying nuclear weapons in its Baltic Sea enclave of
Kaliningrad, where the headquarters of Russia's Baltic fleet is
located, officials in the Baltic countries were silent.

On Jan. 3, The Washington Times published an article citing U.S.
intelligence officials, alleging Russia has been moving nuclear
weapons into Kaliningrad since last summer.

Anatoly Lobsky, a spokesman for the Baltic fleet, has told reporters
that "the Baltic Sea is a nuclear-free zone, and Russia's Baltic
fleet scrupulously observes its international commitments."

In 1991-92, former U.S. President George Bush and Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev reached an informal agreement on the withdrawal of
Russia's tactical nuclear weapons from the former Warsaw Pact states
in Eastern Europe. The weapons were promised to be moved to "central
storage facilities," but whether Russia considers Kaliningrad to be
one of those facilities has been neather confirmed nor denied.

Latvian politicians are standing tongue tied, waiting for more U.S.
reports and some sort of confirmation from Russia. The Latvian
Defense and Foreign ministries are unwilling to comment on the matter
before official information has been studied.

Atis Lejins, head of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs,
told The Baltic Times Latvia need not worry about its path toward
becoming a full-fledged member state of NATO until it has been
confirmed that Russia has redeployed nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad.

"This is a really dumb move on Putin's behalf," Lejins said. "If this
is true, he will lose all credibility in the European Union."

In Estonia, Lithuania and Poland the comments are louder. In Estonia,
former chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ants Laaneots told reporters Russia's
decision to bring nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad is an obvious
warning to NATO.

"During Boris Yeltsin's era, there was only loud talk that Russia is
against NATO expansion, but now there's a new team in Russia which
talks and carries out its threats," Laaneots was reported as saying.

The Polish daily Rzeczpospolita on Jan. 5 reported that, "the Polish
government has obtained satellite pictures showing deployment of
tactical nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad region."

According to the daily, the report was corroborated by a top-ranking
NATO diplomat who was given anonymity, and the diploma reportedly
accused Russia of moving nuclear weapons to other locations dangerous
to Poland.

On Jan. 4, Polish Defense Minister Bronislaw Komorowski, suggested
that an international inspection should be carried out to ascertain
the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian enclave. His
Lithuanian counterpart, Linas Linkevicus, described the proposal as
"meaningful."

"We are constantly monitoring the situation in the Kaliningrad
region," Komorowski said. "The monitoring also includes the fully
natural demand to carry out international missions of inspection."

Lithuanian Conservative Party leader Vytautas Landsbergis has said
Lithuania should ask for security consultations with the United
States and reconsider transit of Russian military through Lithuanian
airspace.

"Taking into account the recent tragedy of the Kursk crew,
prohibition of such flights would allow all Lithuanian citizens to
live calmer lives," Landsbergis told the Baltic News Service.

The Swedish Foreign Ministry has said it believes the Russian denial.
Russia's ambassador to Sweden reiterated the denial, which was echoed
by Vladimir Yegorov, the governor of the Kaliningrad region.

"We expect that the Russian denial is true and that the information
in the U.S. media is incorrect," Sven-Olof Peterson, political
director of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, said in a statement to the
international news agency Reuters. "Deployment of Russian tactical
nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad region would be an extraordinarily
serious and deplorable act, which we hope will never be undertaken by
the Russian side."

Tatyana Poloskova, doctor of political science with the Russian
Foreign Ministry's diplomatic academy, told BNS it is a problem for
Russia to maintain its nuclear arsenal, and therefore reports on the
deployment of nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad region should not be
believed.

"The Russian armed forces have enough internal problems, and they
will hardly start redeploying their missiles," she said.

Still, Russian denials and assurances have fallen short of allaying
the suspicions of its neighboring countries. Lejins said it would be
really dumb of Putin if he tries to repeat the Cold War scenario all
over again.

"It's the wrong game to play in the 21st century," he said.