Though the deadly fire in remote western Latvia 's the deadliest in the country's history 's was the week's headline news, and the Conservatives' strong showing in Lithuania's municipal elections is a solid second-place finisher (which would put Estonia's parliamentary ballot this weekend in a close third), it is a series of foreign-policy related statements out of Vilnius over the past fortnight that merit the space in this column. First, President Valdas Adamkus announced after returning from the United States that Lithuania would offer the odious regime in Belarus an olive branch of trade 's specifically, the use of the Baltic state's terminals for importing oil and oil products.
Second, the Defense Ministry announced on Feb. 22 that the current military mission in Iraq, which expires in July, was unlikely to be extended. Third, a Foreign Ministry official said on Feb. 23 that Lithuania would consider joining Poland in blocking a new EU-Russia cooperation agreement if Moscow didn't show a willingness to repair a damaged oil pipeline feeding the Baltic state.
Not bad at all for a small state. Policy shifts of such magnitude aren't made without lengthy deliberation and consultations with allies. Regarding the EU-Russia pact, Lithuania's decision is long overdue. It is the opinion of this paper that Lithuania should have bitten back at Russia long ago, when it became obvious Moscow, by cutting off oil supplies, was punishing the Baltic state for selling the Mazeikiai refinery to the Poles. But later is better than never. Russia is playing the hegemon in the East European neighborhood, and Lithuania should not fear following words with deeds. Blocking the EU-Russia agreement is one measure, targeting transit of goods and passengers to Kaliningrad Oblast is another.
Assisting Belarus in its hour of isolation involves the age-old conundrum of how to help the citizens of a totalitarian system without indirectly helping the regime itself. With Belarus, the trick is, in the short-term, to drive the wedge between Moscow and Minsk deeper while, in the long-term, establish an oil supply system bypassing Russia via Belarus and Ukraine. A risky diplomatic venture, but as long as Lukashenko and his cronies aren't allowed to step foot in the EU, it may be worth it.
Iraq is obviously the most complex issue, and indeed the ministry's statement has caused a not-so-insignificant squabble between the head of state and the government. The Defense Ministry made its announcement the same day Great Britain and Denmark said they would draw down their forces in Iraq. Yet coming just a week after Adamkus was in Washington, where he undoubtedly received much gratitude for Lithuania's participation in the peacekeeping mission in Iraq, and where he ostensibly assured the most powerful men in the world of the Baltic's continuing commitment, the ministry's announcement shocked the president. He was, in a word, furious. He insisted that Lithuania adhere to its obligations and that any change in plans be made by consensus, and not "by one minister."
In a sense, the president has a point. Allies stick together through thick and thin. Did not Washington refuse to recognize Soviet annexation of the Baltics for a half-century? Yet the situation in Iraq has changed remarkably since summer 2003. It is no longer a matter of weapons of mass destruction, regime change or even a fight against terrorism. Iraq is the in throes of a civil war, and so is no place for a foreign army. Afghanistan, by contrast, is under invasion by insurgents imported from Pakistan, of which there is no shortage. Thus Lithuania's troops, however meager, would be better used if redeployed to Afghanistan.
