Estonian birth rate up for first time in 11 years

  • 2000-05-18
  • By Brooke Donald
TALLINN - The birth rate in Estonia climbed last year for the first time in more than a decade, according to the state statistical office.

Experts say, however, that it is still too early to call this the beginning of a baby boom that will lead to an overall increase in population which has seen a downward trend since the end of the 1980s.

In 1999, Estonians registered 12,545 births, up from 12,269 in 1998. The slight increase of 276 is too small to classify as the beginning of the end of increasingly low birth rates here, but that there was a climb at all is a step in the right direction, according to population experts.

"The numbers are so small. We have to wait a couple of years to see if this is a trend," said Kai Haldre, director of the Family Planning Association, the Estonian arm of the International Planned Parenthood Federation. "Maybe, however, people now have a more positive view of the future and their own stability. This is an important feeling for society."

Estonia, like the United States and some Western European countries, will face in the coming years an aging population exiting the workforce and putting pressure on the state for certain resources and pension benefits.

The drop in population since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 squeezes the labor market threatening Estonia's strong economy and future competitiveness in the region.

During last Sunday's Mother's Day speech at the Estonian National Theatre, President Lennart Meri said it was the responsibility of the state to create favorable conditions for couples, thereby encouraging young people to start families.

"Constant decrease of population cannot be something that cannot be helped," he said. "We have to solve two seemingly contradictory problems in order to avoid this."

According to Meri, improving the ability of young people to take care of children, such as by increasing the availability of affordable housing, and developing the economy so that "educated people want to work [in Estonia]" are two priorities for the government and Parliament.

The president added grimly: "Theoretically it is possible to calculate now in which year there will be less than 200,000 Estonians, provided that we abolish all control and take no measures."

Despite only a slight birth rate increase and an overall negative 0.4 percent population growth (in January 1999, the population was estimated at 1,446,000 compared to the current estimate of 1,439,000), Haldre sees positive developments in society that may in the long run lead to a higher population.

"Prenatal fatality has dropped during the past 10 years," she said. "There are now better facilities for women and they take care of themselves better during pregnancy."

The infant mortality rate in Estonia is 9.5 deaths per 1,000 live births. In comparison, the rates in the United States, Finland and Sweden are 7.1, 3.9 and 4.2, respectively, according to government statistics in each country. Finland and Japan boast the lowest number of infant deaths in the world. The number of stillbirths in Estonia last year was 82, down 10 from 1998.

Haldre added that more and more women are waiting to finish university before having children therefore raising the average childbearing age to 23-years-old from 22-years-old but still younger than the Western European average age of 26.

"More women are having babies in their 30s. This means they are planning and waiting until they are secure in their material wealth. That they can raise healthy and secure families is important to them, and that is great," she said.

Haldre also pointed out that in countries where women have high employment, the birth rate is also high.

"Birth rates go up when women work," she said, citing statistical evidence in Sweden where in the 1970s a low birth rate plagued the country.

"Women and men should equally be allowed to do the house work and stay with the baby. If a woman has to choose what they can afford to do then it is discouraging for them," said Haldre.

The number of abortions - the most popular method of birth control in Soviet times - is also decreasing in Estonia while the use of birth control pills and IUDs is on the rise, Haldre said.

Last year, 43.2 per 1,000 fertile women had an abortion, she said.

Unfortunately, however, increasing the number of births in Estonia is not necessarily guaranteeing a long-term rise in population. External causes of death among children over one-year-old are much more common in this region than in Western Europe. According to the statistics office, deaths outnumbered births last year by 6,000.

"In the Baltic states, mortality rates from external causes such as drownings, accidental poisonings, falls and fire are approximately 10 times higher than in Scandinavian countries among children," said Kadi Mand, advocacy and planning officer at the United Nations Development Programme here. "The tragedy is that all these are preventable causes of death."

Approximately one-third of all deaths in Estonia are premature, Mand said, meaning a good percentage of the population is not living beyond the age of 65.

"You could say that too many people in Estonia are dying because of their own behaviors and lifestyles," she said.