VILNIUS - For most Lithuanians, accustomed to turbulent political warfare and shady campaign tactics, the current presidential campaign appears to be rather dull.
Nevertheless, there is still a fair degree of anticipation surrounding the upcoming presidential ballot, particularly over which candidate will manage to collect the votes that would have otherwise gone to Rolandas Paksas. Although former President Valdas Adamkus continues to lead the race, garnering almost twice as many supporters as his closest rival, polls show he will not get the necessary 50 percent of the vote needed to forego a run-off ballot.
The Baltijos Tyrimai pollster reported that Adamkus was significantly ahead of his competitors with 29.8 percent support, while his closest rivals, Minister of Social Security Vilija Blinkeviciute and former EU negotiator Petras Austrevicius mustered 15.6 percent and 15.1 percent respectively.
The poll also showed that one-fourth of Lithuanians were still undecided about their preference.
Cognizant of the statistics, candidates and their advisers have redeployed their forces into regions outside Vilnius. Despite this, experts said that Paksas supporters would not bother participating.
"The people are disappointed and cannot identify another alternative with the same fighter charisma. However, if they do come to the elections their votes shall go to Prunskiene, because she had been the most neutral during Paksas' trail," said political analyst Vytautas Dumbliauskas.
Still, it is Austrevicius and Blinkeviciute who have the biggest chance of progressing to round two. With ever growing support, the candidates have a strong advantage psychologically.
Of the two, Austrevicius, who just one year ago steamrolled through the EU referendum, has the greatest chance of continuing the presidential race, political analysts predicted.
"Despite the fact that Blinkeviciute is very close to people, her image is less presidential. Austrevicius, on the contrary, is perceived as a person with a presidential mentality and personal characteristics," said political analyst Lauras Bielinis.
Moreover, the former EU negotiator is being highlighted as the candidate of the national business elite, managing to gather the largest amount of financial support during his election campaign.
Austrevicius is also the only candidate supported by more than one political party. As an independent, he has been formally endorsed by the Homeland Union, the Labor Party and the Lithuanian Christian Democrats.
"The support of these three parties won't have a significant impact on the election results," Bielinis said. "This may just increase the ratings of the parties. However, the parties with good organizational capacity might help to intensify the campaign in the regions."
Analysts, however, agree that both Austrevicius and Adamkus are battling over the same electorate. Both candidates promote active internal politics and are perceived to have strong skills in foreign politics. But between them, it may seem that a candidate's age has greater leverage than his ideas, since Austrevicius is significantly younger than Adamkus.
Blinkeviciute, considered to be one of the most charismatic candidates, is another second-round possibility. Both warm and patronizing, she appeals to many people, and polls have gone so far as to suggest that women regard her as their savior. Two times more women are disposed to vote for Blinkeviciute than men.
However, in the past week, the candidate has already been involved with two minor scandals. After denying accusations that she consciously used Ministry of Social Security money to publish favorable articles highlighting her achievements, Blinkeviciute rebuffed an alleged love affair with controversial businessman Gintas Jagela.
Meanwhile, at the back of the race, Kazimiera Prunskiene and acting Chairman of Seimas (Lithuania's parliament) Ceslovas Jursenas have the slimmest chances of proceeding to the second round, according to experts. Currently Prunskiene has 14.7 percent of the vote while Jursenas has only 8.8 percent.
Political analysts criticize Prunskiene for lacking an ideology and being unclear. According to Dumbliauskas, "Prunskiene is a person of the past." However, as far as her strengths, she is said to be an experienced politician who can form a strong team.
Jursenas, the Social Democrats' candidate, appeared to be in the most undesirable situation, having to share the credit for improving social affairs with the minister of social security.
"Jursenas is a second or third person in the Social Democratic Party. Therefore, sending its gray eminence to the elections, the party showed that it regards the president's position as insignificant," said Dumbliauskas.
Despite many borderline ethical campaign tactics, analysts said that political agitation was becoming at once more civilized and professional.
"I don't think the campaign is monotonic," Bielinis said. "It simply provides more professional political advertising and the candidates continue a praiseworthy correct behavior."
