More robots, fewer children – where is this leading?

The world is experiencing a dramatic decline in birth rates, one that can no longer be fully explained by economic factors, housing shortages, or women's emancipation. As a result, researchers are increasingly turning their attention to smartphones, video games, and social media. The idea is simple: people are spending more and more time in virtual reality, and, as we know, children are not born there.

In most countries around the world, the total fertility rate has already fallen below 2.1 – the level necessary to maintain a stable population in the long term. Some countries, including Lithuania, have approached the 1.0 threshold. If such a rate persists for an extended period, the next generation of Lithuanians will be only half the size of the current one.

Not only are fertility rates declining, but so is the total number of children born worldwide. Births peaked in 2012, when 146 million children were born globally. By 2025, that number had fallen to 132 million. Admittedly, the world's population will continue to grow for some time, but the declining number of births means that global population growth is already programmed to reverse in the not-too-distant future – possibly as early as 2050, without ever reaching the 10-billion mark.

Interestingly, fertility is declining fastest not in wealthy Europe, but in East Asia. In China, for example, 18.8 million children were born in 2016, compared with just 7.9 million in 2025. China's total population shrank by 3 million people in 2025 alone – more than the entire population of Lithuania. Remarkably, fertility in less affluent Mexico has fallen below that of the United States for the first time, while in Turkey, historically known for larger families, it has dropped below 1.5.

Lithuania's demographic indicators are also deteriorating rapidly. Over the past decade, the number of children born in the country has fallen from 31,500 in 2015 to 17,600 in 2025. In other words, within a very short period, Lithuania has become one of the countries where the demographic crisis is no longer a problem of the future but of the present.

Until recently, it was widely believed that declining fertility was driven primarily by economic insecurity, high housing costs, or difficulties balancing work and family life. Today, however, it is increasingly acknowledged that these factors alone can no longer explain the latest fertility decline. The roots of the problem appear to run deeper.

Smartphones, video games, and social media are transforming how people spend their free time, communicate, and build relationships. People are spending more time in virtual spaces, where families are not formed and children are not born. If the trend of ultra-low fertility continues for a prolonged period, we will face unprecedented demographic changes that will undoubtedly affect the economy as well. We will have to adapt to a continuously shrinking population.

At the same time, the number of robots worldwide is growing rapidly and has already surpassed 50 million. This raises a question that is no longer merely rhetorical: could it be that, in the future, we will give way to robots?

Demography, like economics, does not tolerate illusions. If more of life moves onto screens, while fewer and fewer people choose to start families and have children, the consequences will be unavoidable. Declining birth rates will gradually reshape the labor market, public finances, the education system, and the entire economic model.

The question today is no longer whether the fertility crisis is deepening. The real question is what we are prepared to do to change it. And if we cannot change it, what will we do to adapt to this new reality?