RIGA - The mobilization started in Russia will have "some effect", but the war in Ukraine is a technical war, while large offensive operations from both warring sides this year are unlikely to be expected anymore, National Guard Major Janis Slaidins told LETA.
The Ukrainians have already said that they are not worried about the mobilization started by Russia for the time being, and the Ukrainians will continue to do what their armed forces have to do. At the same time, there is a question as to how quickly this mobilization will take place. "In Russia, the term of compulsory service for those who were conscripted last year will soon expire, and it is very likely that these approximately 100,000 people could be involved in the first wave," Slaidins said.
He did not deny that the arrival of people subject to mobilization in Ukraine will have "some effect", but the war in Ukraine is still a technical war and, most likely, the quantity of soldiers will not be so important here. "Of course, everything depends on the ammunition available to the Ukrainians, which they must have, because the West must continue to support Ukraine in order to repel the next Russian attacks," the expert said.
The war in Ukraine is a "technical war", which means that, theoretically, the side with better artillery, missile troops, and long-range weapons is in a better position. At the same time, of course, combat morale is very important, which is much, much higher for Ukrainians than for Russian troops.
The Russians clearly need time to be able to form and perhaps this first wave of mobilized troops is meant less for offensive operations, but for holding the occupied borders and maintaining the conflict. "There are many and various problems for the Russian army. I think Russia is not at all ready to immediately call up such a group and try to train and form them," the expert pointed out.
Taking into account the current situation at the front, the mobilization that has begun and the approach of winter, Slaidins is inclined to believe that no major offensive operations are expected from either side this year.
"Of course, the Russians will try to accumulate forces in order to resume more active offensive operations next year. We can't expect big offensive operations from them at the moment. The main thing for the Ukrainians right now is the right bank of the Dnieper river. If they regain this bridgehead by winter, then it will already be a great success. ( ..) What the Ukrainians did near Kharkiv was a surprise, but now it can hardly be a surprise effect for the Russians. Let us also take into account that the Russians also learn from their mistakes and draw conclusions," said Slaidins.
Although the Ukrainians now have the initiative in the war, it can be observed that in the east of the country their attack has stopped and is no longer with such a high intensity, which means that now the Ukrainians have to fight meter by meter.
In order to achieve a great operational success, a large resource of forces is needed, but in this war, quality is more decisive than quantity, since the Ukrainians attacked in the east in smaller numbers than the Russian forces, Slaidins pointed out.
"The Russian forces consist of soup contents - regular forces, private military companies, volunteer battalions and those mobilized from Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Of course, it is very difficult for Russian commanders to lead such troops," the expert said.