Lithuanian intelligence warns Russia could target Baltic region within years

VILNIUS - Russia could be ready for a limited military conflict in the Baltic Sea region within three to five years if a temporary ceasefire is reached in Ukraine, Lithuanian intelligence said on Friday.

Presenting the national security threat assessment, the State Security Department and the Second Department of Operational Services said that if the war in Ukraine continues, Russia could be prepared for a limited conflict in the region within six to ten years.

Should Russia and Ukraine sign a peace treaty and Western sanctions against Moscow be lifted, Russia would be ready for a limited conflict in the Baltic Sea region within one to two years, and for a large-scale military conflict with NATO within six to ten years.

"The security situation in Lithuania and the region is directly dependent on the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as it determines Russia’s ability to increase its military capabilities," the threat assessment states.

"As long as Russia has to allocate most of its available resources to the war, its ability to pose military threats to other countries is limited," it adds.

Lithuanian intelligence noted that, even while at war, Russia is implementing military reforms, strengthening its forces in the Kaliningrad region and along NATO’s eastern borders. The assessment warned that in the event of a limited conflict against the Baltic states, Russia could establish a regional advantage, at least in the initial phase.

"This could encourage the Kremlin to use military force based on the miscalculation and belief that NATO should be unable to respond in time, and the conflict could be localised and quickly ended in Russia’s favour, with nuclear deterrence serving as a safeguard," the threat assessment reads.

Lithuanian intelligence indicates that Russia is gradually implementing the military development plans announced in December 2022.

According to these plans, brigades along the borders of eastern NATO states are being expanded into divisions, and entirely new military formations are being created.

Intelligence states that Russia's armed forces expansion also includes the Kaliningrad region, where a deployed marine brigade is being expanded into a division, with further formation of additional units planned for the future.

The State Security Department and the Second Department of Operational Services write that the Russian military grouping currently deployed in the Kaliningrad region remains temporarily weakened.

"Most of the land component troops and combat equipment have been deployed to fight against Ukraine. The land component units in the Kaliningrad Region are mainly staffed by conscripts and a small number of professional soldiers," the threat assessment states.

It adds that most newly formed units in the Russian army are not at full strength and are being developed in parts due to a lack of military personnel, combat equipment, and infrastructure.

The document also states that Russia's war industry is preparing for a new phase of development.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian leadership has mobilized significant resources to expand the production of weapons and equipment needed for the war, and currently, the war industry meets at least minimal needs in all areas of weaponry, intelligence reports.

According to intelligence, modernization continues in various sectors, new production capacities are being built, and the results of these investments will have long-term consequences.

"After the war, Russia’s military-industrial complex will move on to the next stage of development, with the state continuing to support areas necessary for long-term confrontation. As funding is reallocated, some of the bloated military-related industries will have to reorient themselves or shrink.," the State Security Department and the Second Department of Operational Services state.

"This will also have consequences for global security - there will be a surplus of weapons that could be used in conflicts around the world.," the institutions assert.

According to them, the independence of Russia's war industry from foreign technologies is one of Moscow's highest priorities, and the country has already managed to find many alternatives to Western technologies, actively seeking them out.

However, in some areas, especially electronic components needed for high technologies, Russia's dependence is significant and long-term.

Russia's modernization requires Western-made high-precision devices and equipment, for which organizing domestic production would require decades of investment.

Russia acquires some of these technologies from China, but the Russian leadership also considers growing dependence on China risky, the threat assessment states.

"Although it is unlikely that Russia will catch up with the West in the field of high technology even in the long term,

its technological resilience to Western sanctions is highly likely to increase in the medium term," intelligence says.

Lithuanian intelligence also warns that the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces continues to plan and implement sabotage. Over the past three years, several dozen such operations have been thwarted in Western countries.

"the units of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU), which are specially trained to carry out sabotage operations and assassinations, highly likely continue to plan and coordinate operations of this nature," the report states.

According to the report, by employing more experienced individuals, the Russian Armed Forces seeks to carry out more dangerous operations in Western countries, including Lithuania, which could cause greater harm to public safety.

According to intelligence, individuals supporting Ukraine and opponents of President Vladimir Putin who have left Russia due to criticism of the regime are currently becoming primary targets for the Russian Armed Forces operations.

"This service has organised several operations in the region, using homemade incendiary devices or explosives disguised as household appliances. Thanks to successful cooperation between Lithuanian institutions and foreign partners, the planned operations have been prevented and their perpetrators arrested," the threat assessment states.

It adds that both Lithuanian and foreign citizens who regularly travel to Russia and Belarus continue to face threats. They risk imprisonment or recruitment by the intelligence services of these states.

Sanctions and restrictions complicate the ability of Russian intelligence services to conduct human intelligence against Lithuania, so they use available opportunities by recruiting people crossing the border.

"At the two border control points currently operating on the border between Lithuania and the Kaliningrad Region, the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) is actively seeking to identify potential intelligence targets among travellers. FSB officers are taking advantage of the fact that these individuals are travelling to Russia for business or personal reasons, such as visiting relatives or dealing with property matters," Lithuanian intelligence states.

In the report, it provided a specific case where a Lithuanian citizen who traveled for business purposes attracted the attention of Russian border officials. They were interested in information about former Lithuanian officials visiting Russia, the Ukrainian diaspora in Lithuania, military equipment movements, and similar matters.

"The FSB pressures third-country nationals to cooperate by threatening to ban them from entering Russia," the report indicates.

Lithuanian intelligence institutions present their threat assessments annually.