Jüri Toomepuu: Orbán's career may not be over yet

TALLINN - Few leaders in European politics have managed to dominate for as long and as completely as Viktor Orbán; his "illiberal democracy" served as a model for European right-wing populists and America's MAGA movement for decades. However, on April 12, 2026, something unexpected happened: Orbán didn't just lose an election - he lost something much deeper; he lost his populist touch and his connection with the Hungarian people, writes former politician and military officer Jüri Toomepuu in Postimees.

According to Toomepuu, this was not an accident but a long, systemic decay. "Economic reality, political fatigue, and strategic missteps eroded the narrative he had relied on for 16 years. This article analyzes how Orbán reached this point, why his model no longer worked, and what this means for Europe and, especially, for Estonia," he noted.

Toomepuu says economic dissatisfaction, political fatigue, and a loss of trust proved fatal for Orbán in this year's election. His opponent, Péter Magyar - a former Fidesz insider - did not win with an ideological revolution but with a pragmatic message: curbing corruption, improving relations with the EU, restoring public services, and normalizing the economy.

"The result was clear: voters preferred rationality and normalcy over populism. The turnout was record-breaking - the Hungarian people said 'Enough!'" writes Toomepuu in Postimees.

What does this mean for Estonia?

"For Estonia, Orbán's defeat is encouraging. Populism should not be underestimated, but neither should it be mystified. It can be very strong, but it is neither inevitable nor irreversible. Economic security is a part of national security. National defense consists not only of military capability but also of a stable economy and social trust. When these erode, susceptibility to populism grows," Toomepuu stated.

He argues that clarity in foreign policy is an advantage, not a weakness. "Orbán's 'two-chairs policy' between the West and Russia ultimately proved risky. For Estonia, this confirms that a unidirectional focus on NATO and the EU is a strategic strength. Ukraine and Estonia have gained strength," Toomepuu noted.

In Toomepuu's view, Viktor Orbán's political career may not be over yet - populists have made comebacks before. "But something has irreversibly changed: his aura as the 'invincible defender of the people' has been shattered. His story is a reminder of a classic political paradox: populism works best when the populist does not have to be accountable. When they must answer for the economy, corruption, and geopolitics, the narrative becomes fragile in the face of reality. The Hungarian voters made their choice. Not for ideology, but for practicality. This is the most important message for all of Europe in 2026. Time does not pass judgment - voters do," he remarked.