Iran cannot win this war - expert

RIGA - Iran cannot win this war, and this was foreshadowed by last year's 12-day war, in which Iran was humiliated and suffered losses, commented Maris Andzans to LETA, an associate professor at Riga Stradins University (RSU) and director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, on the US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

He points out that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed unexpectedly quickly, as Israel has stated - in the first seconds of the attack. "I think this also shows the weakness of the Iranian regime. However, despite this, I think we are only at the beginning. The strikes will continue for several days or even weeks against military, political, and other strategic targets in Iran," predicts Andzans.

In the expert's view, Iran can only watch what is happening from the air and use its ballistic missiles, which will most likely run out soon. In addition, by carrying out strikes, Iran has revealed the locations of its missiles.

Andzans allows for several scenarios for future developments. One of them could be the election of a new supreme spiritual leader, who would be the third, as there have only been two so far. He would try to lead the country and change its approach, becoming more lenient and announcing that he is abandoning the nuclear program and ending the ballistic missile program. However, it is also clear that he would immediately become a target for Israeli and US strikes, similar to how the commander of the Revolutionary Guard was killed during the previous war. The person who was appointed to replace him at the time has now been killed as well, Andzans reminds us.

As a second scenario, Andzans mentions the possibility of an internal coup, in which, for example, the Revolutionary Guard carries out a coup and sidelines the president, other officials, and other security forces, including the armed forces. An internal military coup is carried out, and its initiators also announce a change of course.

As a third possible scenario, the expert allows for the people to take to the streets, which is not easy to do because the security forces are massive and the Revolutionary Guard is still strong and ruthless. In addition, Iran still has one of the largest armed forces in the world, with approximately half a million soldiers on land. This would be possible if the people took control of strategic sites and Reza Pahlavi became the transitional leader. Pahlavi is the son of the last Shah of Iran, who lives in the US and is calling for an uprising.

Andzans also admits the possibility of civil war, as Iran is not a mono-ethnic and mono-religious country-it is home to Kurds, Arabs, Persians, and Azerbaijanis.

In the expert's view, no country will rush to deploy ground forces, except perhaps a special task force, because it is more dangerous to operate on the ground when there are sufficiently strong armed forces.

Andzans emphasizes that Iran has no way back. Iran is currently at its weakest since 1979. "It is obvious that the people are dissatisfied with a regime that has terrorized the country and led it into poverty," the expert reminds.