If the war in Ukraine stopped now, Russia would want to use its army elsewhere - Andzans

RIGA - If the war in Ukraine were to suddenly stop now, Russia would probably want to put its massive army, seasoned in real combat, to work somewhere else, Maris Andzans, associate professor at Riga Stradins University and Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, told Latvian Television.

According to him, the Russian army is probably stronger now than before the war - there are a number of mobilized people, as well as many soldiers who returned to Russia from Ukraine without legs, arms and eyes, traumatized both physically and mentally. "What will Russia do with them? That is the big question. It could create internal political social tensions and Russia would have to look where to put these soldiers."

Asked whether he meant that Russia might "have an itch in its claws" to fight somewhere else, Andzans said that such a version was possible and that "in the best case scenario" Russia could continue its operations in Africa, where it has a fairly good position. Russia could also strengthen its ambitions in Syria, from where it could partly cause trouble in other regions. "So we should not necessarily assume that Russia will turn these troops against us, but it is clear that this brings advantages as well as disadvantages," said the foreign policy analyst.

Andzans, however, thinks that Russia is now ready to continue the war in Ukraine. Russia believes that it is in control of the situation quite well. Putin is apparently unwilling to agree to any ceasefire as long as any Ukrainian forces are on Russian territory, the researcher concluded.

The professor assumed that Ukraine is gradually leaving Russian territory because this has been the US demand to make it easier to reach an agreement. The Russian-occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant could also still be on the negotiating table, Andzans said.

Asked whether this meant that the negotiating partners' cards had already been exchanged, he replied in the negative, explaining that the cards are revealed gradually, starting with what is known as shuttle diplomacy, where a mediator, in this case the US, goes to one side or the other and sees who has what cards and who is ready to make concessions to whom.

Asked which side would benefit more from a ceasefire in the current situation, Andzans replied that it would benefit both sides. On the Ukraine front, Ukraine is doing worse, so from a military tactical point of view it would be more advantageous for Russia to continue the war, but it should be borne in mind that US President Donald Trump has said he is ready to step up pressure on Russia if it does not agree to a ceasefire.

As reported, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he was ready to agree to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, but with conditions.

"We agree with proposals to end hostilities, but this proposal must be one that would lead to long-term peace and address the root causes of the war," Putin said.

The dictator said that Russia supports the 30-day ceasefire in principle, but there are nuances. One of these nuances is the situation of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, which he described as under siege. He stressed that there were many other details related to the cessation of hostilities that would have to be discussed in detail with the US.

Trump later said that Putin had made a very promising statement about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, but added that it was not complete.

Trump said that "I would love to meet him or talk to him, but we have to finish this quickly".