China's vision of long-term solution is new European security architecture with Russian interests - special services

RIGA - China's vision of a long-term solution is a new European security architecture that would take into account Russia's security interests and reduce the US role in European security, according to the annual threat assessment and 2025 activity review by the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD).

China's leader Xi Jinping sees China's return to the global stage as a respected power with no external obstacles to its growth and the pursuit of its national interests as the key task for himself and the Chinese Communist Party. In Beijing's view, the current international order is moving China further away from this goal: the US is consolidating its global dominance, while Europe is unable to provide a counterweight, MIDD pointed out.

China wants to position itself as a "co-architect" of the world order, which includes the right to resolve the "unfinished business" it sees as an integral part of the post-war world order. It also indicates that China claims a sphere of influence covering at least a part of East Asia.

In 2025, China and Russia continued to strengthen strategic cooperation and publicly demonstrate unity, signaling that they share a similar vision of the international order. Although bilateral trade declined overall, it remains an essential pillar of Russia's economy to continue its aggression in Ukraine, the MIDD report said.

It concludes that Beijing has shown interest in increasing energy imports from Russia, including by resuming talks on a new natural gas pipeline. This indicates that China is likely to continue to exploit Russia's partial economic isolation in its own interests - to achieve lower import prices and to strengthen Russia's economic dependence on China.

China's position on the war in Ukraine has not changed and Beijing's active involvement in seeking a settlement of the war is unlikely, the report said.

Last year, China's state-controlled media paid increased attention to the Baltic Sea region, especially in the context of NATO deployments in the Baltic states, including Latvia. Media and think-tank experts repeated Russian propaganda messages about the Baltic countries' hostile policy towards Russia and the threat posed by NATO to Russia.

A new trend was also identified last year: Russia's efforts to reinforce new messages about the Baltic states in China's information space. These include, for example, attempts to link "the Baltic states being a part of Russia's sphere of influence" with China's rights over Taiwan and to portray the Baltic states as sinophobic. So far, these messages have not found support in the Beijing-controlled information space, the report concluded.

MIDD is a state security institution under the supervision of the Minister of Defense, which carries out military counter-intelligence, intelligence and other tasks stipulated by the Law on State Security Institutions and other laws and regulations. Since 2002, the Head of the Service is Indulis Krekis.