Within 5 years, 40 percent of basic school graduates in Estonia enroll in higher education

TALLINN - According to Statistics Estonia, 40 percent of those who graduated from basic school in 2020 continued their studies in Estonian higher education institutions in the previous academic year, 2024/2025.

Most of these young people entered higher education through upper secondary school. In total, 52 percent of the young people who graduated from basic school five years ago were still in the Estonian education system last year.

Käthrin Randoja, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said the study covered approximately 12,250 young people who graduated from basic school in the 2019/2020 academic year. Statistics Estonia monitored their movement through the education system over one, three, and five years, as at the end of the year -- broken down by gender and native language. Graduates of simplified curricula and part-time study were not included in the analysis.

Ninety-six percent of the young people who completed grade 9 five years ago immediately went on to acquire upper secondary education, enrolling in either an upper secondary schools or a vocational schools. Among graduates with Estonian as their native language, 97 percent continued their upper secondary education, while the figure was 94 percent for those with Russian as their native language.

In the third year after graduating from basic school, the proportion of students continuing in upper secondary education had decreased by 6 percentage points among young people with Estonian as their native language and by 9 percentage points among those with Russian as their native language.

"We see that more young people with Russian as their native language dropped out of their studies," said Randoja.

Within five years, 82 percent of those who had completed basic school went had obtained an upper secondary diploma, either in an upper secondary school or a vocational school. Among Estonian native speakers, 84 percent had an upper secondary diploma, while the figure was 78 percent for Russian native speakers. There is also a noticeable gender difference: 86 percent of women had an upper secondary diploma compared to 79 percent of men.

About three-quarters -- 71 percent -- of the basic school graduates continued their studies in an upper secondary school, while a -- 25 percent -- went to a vocational secondary school. Only 1 percent entered vocational training programs that do not lead to an upper secondary diploma.

Here too, a clear difference by mother tongue emerges: 74 percent of Estonian native speakers entered an upper secondary school, compared to 63 percent of Russian native speakers. Vocational secondary education was chosen by 22 percent of Estonian native speakers and 32 percent of Russian native speakers. An even greater difference appears by gender. Eighty-two percent of girls went on to an upper secondary school, compared to 61 percent of boys. Thirty-five percent of boys continued in vocational secondary school, compared to 15 percent of girls, the analyst pointed out.

By the fifth year after completing basic school, 40 percent of graduates had enrolled in higher education, including 29 percent in bachelor's studies and 11 percent in applied higher education, with the vast majority -- 97 percent -- reaching it through general secondary education rather than vocational secondary education. Another 6 percent of young people were still acquiring general or vocational secondary education in the fifth year, and the same proportion were earning a professional qualification.

"Nearly a third -- 31 percent -- of basic school graduates were, by the fifth year, already part of the labor force. Twenty-four percent were working only, and 8 percent were registered as unemployed. Fifty-two percent continued in the Estonian education system, including 35 percent who were also working alongside their studies," said Randoja.

According to Randoja, OECD data suggests that about 3 to 4 percent of students are studying abroad five years after completing basic school. Three percent were in conscript service, and around one percent were likely inactive due to becoming parents.

"The status of about 9 percent of the graduates remained unclear in the fifth year after basic school," Randoja said. "We have no data on those who went to work abroad. The inactive group may also include people with reduced work ability and entrepreneurs who are not registered as employees," she added.

Randoja noted that participation in education is influenced by both native language and gender. Five years after completing basic school, 56 percent of Estonian-speaking young people and 40 percent of Russian-speakers are still enrolled in the Estonian education system. Among women, 59 percent continue their studies, compared to 45 percent of men.

Therefore, Russian-speaking youth enter the labor market earlier: in the fifth year, 29 percent of Russian-speaking youth were working but not studying, compared to 22 percent of Estonian-speaking youth. Eleven percent of Russian-speaking youth were registered as unemployed, compared to 6 percent of Estonian-speaking youth.

According to the analyst, the examination of young people's educational pathways shows that those who reach higher education are primarily the ones who continued in an upper secondary school after basic school. Although vocational secondary education does not rule out entering higher education, so far this has been rather exceptional. Only a small number of young people with vocational secondary education move on to applied higher education. In the sample under review, 7 percent of those studying in applied higher education had completed vocational secondary education, while 93 percent had a general secondary education, Randoja noted, adding that in the future we may see different patterns.

"In recent years, significant changes have been planned and implemented to raise the level of vocational secondary education and to offer a competitive alternative to general secondary education. At the same time, the transition to Estonian-language education is underway, which could gradually reduce the impact of language-related factors on educational pathways," she explained. Therefore, it can be expected that if the same analysis is repeated in ten years, the patterns of progression to higher education may be much more diverse, and more similar between Estonian- and Russian-speaking youth, Randoja concluded.